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炭素回収・利用・貯留（CCUS）の決定論的コスト推計アプローチ：レビュー

Deterministic Cost Estimation Approaches for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: A Review (原題)

Majid Mohajeri, Saman Azadbakht

Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-09-15#CCUS経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.1002/ghg.70043
原典: https://doi.org/10.1002/ghg.70043
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本レビューは2003年から2026年初頭までのCCUS関連文献を対象に、回収・輸送・利用・貯留の各段階で用いられるコスト推計手法と算定式を整理した。NPV・IRR・MARR・費用便益分析・損益分岐点・感度分析・回収期間・技術経済評価といった決定論的指標に焦点を当て、前提条件やシナリオの違いが結果の比較可能性を損なう点を指摘する。決定論的モデルは初期スクリーニングには有用だが、規模・地域条件・インフラ・市場前提が不明確な場合は誤解を招く恐れがあると結論づけ、標準KPIと明確な入力データの必要性を訴えている。

English

This review synthesizes 2003–early 2026 literature on cost-estimation methods and formulae across carbon capture, transport, utilization, and storage. It focuses on deterministic economic metrics (NPV, IRR, MARR, CBA, break-even, sensitivity, payback, techno-economic assessment) and shows how differing assumptions and scenarios hinder cross-project comparability. Deterministic models suit early screening but can mislead without clear scale, regional, infrastructure, and market assumptions; carbon taxes and incentives remain critical to feasibility, while high capex, policy uncertainty, and missing standardized frameworks block development.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではCCUSはGX推進戦略・エネルギー基本計画における重要技術であり、JOGMECや大手企業の実証案件が進行中。本レビューは、事業性評価の標準化が日本企業のCCUS投資判断や政府支援設計に資することを示す。

In the global GX context

Globally, CCUS is central to net-zero pathways and transition finance taxonomies (EU, US 45Q, ISSB climate disclosure). This review highlights the lack of standardized economic evaluation frameworks, which complicates comparability for investors and policymakers assessing CCUS project viability.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:CCUS経済評価の手法と限界を整理した基礎文献として、標準KPI設計や不確実性下の評価研究の出発点になる。

🏢実務担当者:CCUSプロジェクトの初期スクリーニングに決定論的指標を用いる際、前提条件の明示と標準KPI採用の重要性を理解できる。

🏛政策担当者:炭素税・インセンティブ設計と標準的経済評価枠組みの整備がCCUS普及に不可欠である点を政策立案に反映すべき。

📄 Abstract（原文）

ABSTRACT Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is regarded as a connection between traditional, high‐emission sectors and future green energy. This study encompasses literature from 2003 to early 2026 to review methodologies and formulae used for cost estimating in the various segments of carbon capture, transport, utilization, and storage. The focus of this study is the deterministic economic assessment metrics (net present value [NPV], internal rate of return [IRR], minimum attractive rate of return [MARR], cost–benefit analysis [CBA], break‐even analysis, sensitivity analysis, payback period, and techno‐economic assessment) in the CCUS system to assess the viability of projects. This review discusses how different assumptions and scenarios can change the results and make comparisons between CCUS projects difficult. This review indicates that deterministic models are useful for early screening of projects, but their results may be misleading when the project scale, regional conditions, infrastructure availability, and market assumptions are not clearly defined. Although technical innovation and shared infrastructure can reduce the costs, most available research still emphasizes the critical role of carbon taxes and incentives in improving CCUS project feasibility. On the other hand, the results identify that high capital costs, policy uncertainty, the absence of standardized economic evaluation frameworks, and a lack of clear data all hinder the CCUS project development. It is suggested that deterministic approaches and standard key performance indicators (KPIs) with clear input data can help improve the economic evaluation of CCUS projects. However, uncertainty in input parameters could still reduce accuracy, and the need for other estimation tools could arise. 2026 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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