二重炭素目標下における中国太陽光発電の明るい展望：太陽光発電所のライフサイクルに基づくポテンシャル評価
The bright prospect of China's photovoltaic under the double carbon goal: A potential assessment based on the life cycle of photovoltaic power plants (原題)
Ruijing Wang, Jirui Gong, Siqi Zhang, Weiyuan Zhang, Xuede Dong, Guisen Yang, Chenyi Yan, Shangpeng Zhang, Tong Wang, Yaohong Yu, Qin Xie
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の「二重炭素」目標に向け、太陽光発電（PV）の土地適性と開発ポテンシャルを30年のライフサイクルで評価した研究。主観的MCDMと客観的地理検出器を統合し、気候変動と土地利用変化の将来シナリオを考慮。2020年時点で国土の26.26%が適地で、技術的ポテンシャルは年間電力需要の57倍、CO2削減ポテンシャルは247.66Gtと試算。内モンゴル西部や青海チベット高原が最適地で、2050年脱炭素・2060年カーボンニュートラルに寄与し得る。
English
This study assesses land suitability and development potential for centralized PV in China over a 30-year life cycle, integrating subjective MCDM with an objective Geographic Detector under climate and land-use change scenarios. In 2020, 26.26% of China's land was suitable, with technical potential 57 times national electricity demand and CO2 mitigation of 247.66 Gt. Western Inner Mongolia and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau are optimal regions, supporting power decarbonization by 2050 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の再生可能エネルギー政策と長期脱炭素計画に関する実証研究であり、日本のGX戦略における太陽光導入拡大や適地評価の参考になる。特にアジア地域のエネルギー転換政策を考える上で示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global renewable energy planning by providing a replicable spatiotemporal framework for PV siting under climate change, relevant to international decarbonization pathways and energy transition finance. It supports the global push for scaling solar infrastructure to meet Paris Agreement goals.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:太陽光発電の長期ポテンシャル評価手法と気候変動影響の統合分析に関心がある研究者に有用。
🏢実務担当者:再生可能エネルギープロジェクトの立地選定や長期投資計画を検討する企業に参考となる。
🏛政策担当者:再生可能エネルギー導入目標や土地利用政策の立案に資する空間的評価手法を提供する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
China's proposed "double carbon" strategy (achieving peak carbon, then net zero) offers an unprecedented opportunity for the development of solar photovoltaic (PV). Assessing land suitability and development potential is essential for scaling up PV infrastructure. However, the possible impacts of climate change and land conversion over the long-life cycle of PV systems have not been sufficiently explored. Here, this study develops a spatiotemporal assessment framework that integrates subjective Multi-Criteria Decision Making with the objective Geographic Detector to evaluate the land suitability and development potential of centralized photovoltaic (CPV) systems in China under both current condition and future scenarios of climate change and land conversion. This study spans the 30-year PV life cycle, overcoming the static siting limitations. Results indicate that in 2020, approximately 2,486,158 km 2 (26.26%) of China's land was suitable for CPV development. The technical potential was 57 times that year's national electricity, offering a CO 2 mitigation potential of 247.66 Gt. Future prospects are even more promising, with the potential projected to reach 1.5 times the 2020 level. The most suitable regions for CPV development are western Inner Mongolia and the northeastern and southwestern parts of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. In areas with low CPV potential, composite PV projects tailored to local conditions could be implemented. Our results confirm that CPV holds significant potential for decarbonizing China's power system by 2050 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Internationally, this methodology offers a replicable framework for spatially explicit renewable energy planning under global change scenarios.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.149487first seen 2026-09-19 05:12:45
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