Government subsidies, carbon quota prices, and spillover effects of carbon emissions: Insights from the EU carbon market
政府補助金、炭素割当価格、炭素排出の波及効果：EU炭素市場からの洞察 (AI 翻訳)
Xiaoxiao Zhou, Yongan Zhao, Tatiana Gherman, Vincent Charles, Xin Zhao, Wanzhen Li
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、EU炭素市場における政府補助金、炭素排出量、炭素割当価格の動的相互関係を分析。確率的微分ゲームモデルとTVP-VAR波及効果分析を用い、特に短期（1-5日）で波及効果が強まること、ドイツが主要な波及源であること、コロナ禍で産業部門と価格の役割が逆転したことなどを示した。
English
This paper analyzes the dynamics of carbon quota pricing and emissions under government subsidies in the EU carbon market. Using a stochastic differential game model and TVP-VAR spillover analysis, it finds strong interconnectedness with seasonality, Germany as a primary spillover source, and a reversal of roles during COVID-19.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のカーボンプライシング制度設計（特に排出量取引）において、EU市場の補助金と価格の波及効果の知見は、政策の波及やショック耐性を考慮する上で示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
The paper provides empirical evidence on how government subsidies and carbon prices interact in the EU ETS, offering valuable insights for the design of resilient carbon trading systems globally, especially regarding shock transmission and industrial sector roles.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The paper offers a novel combination of game-theoretic and spillover analysis for carbon markets.
🏢実務担当者:Firms in the EU ETS can better understand short-term price spillovers and the impact of subsidies on their carbon costs.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators can use the findings to assess the resilience of carbon markets and the role of subsidies during crises.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper examines the dynamics of carbon quota pricing and emissions under government subsidies in the EU carbon market. The study reveals three core findings. First, carbon emissions, carbon subsidies, and carbon quota prices exhibit strong interconnectedness with pronounced seasonality, and spillover effects intensify during exogenous shocks, particularly at short-term frequencies within one to five days. Second, Germany consistently serves as the primary source of spillover effects, reflecting its energy-intensive industrial structure and dominant position in the EU Emissions Trading System, while carbon subsidies function as information receivers in the short term but maintain stable roles in the medium to long term under the EU’s sustained climate commitments. Third, the COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally altered spillover patterns, with the EU industrial sector transitioning from a net transmitter to a net recipient of spillovers and carbon quota prices shifting to net recipients during the shock. These findings are derived from a stochastic differential game model that captures strategic interactions between governments and enterprises under exogenous shocks, combined with TVP-VAR spillover analysis that quantifies dynamic connectedness across time and frequency domains. The results enhance the understanding of carbon market mechanisms under policy interventions and external disturbances, offering insights for the development of more efficient and resilient carbon trading systems.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102369first seen 2026-06-07 05:03:21
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