Decarbonization at What Cost? Assessing the Agricultural Economic Impact of Mitigation Policy: Evidence From Net‐Zero Targets
脱炭素化の代償は？気候変動緩和政策の農業経済影響：ネットゼロ目標からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)
Yu Lai, Zhaopu Liu, Mingen Zhao, Cheng Zhang, Yuchun Zhu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
143カ国のネットゼロ目標を基に、緩和政策が農業生産額を7.9%減少させることを示した。排出削減量は生産減少の約半分にとどまり、技術停滞が主因。適応政策が損失を補う可能性を指摘。
English
Using net-zero targets from 143 nations, this study finds mitigation policy reduces agricultural output by 7.9%, with emission reductions only half that amount. Output losses are mainly due to stagnant mitigation technology, but adaptation policies can largely compensate. The policy also negatively impacts no-poverty goals.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも農業分野のGX戦略策定において、緩和対策と生産性維持・貧困対策のトレードオフが重要。本稿は適応策の併用が鍵であることを示唆。
In the global GX context
This paper provides cross-country evidence on the economic costs of mitigation in agriculture, relevant for global discussions on balancing decarbonization with food security and poverty reduction under frameworks like ISSB and transition finance.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a multi-country quasi-experimental estimate of the agricultural cost of mitigation, with implications for climate-economy modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the need for adaptation investments to offset output losses from mitigation in agricultural supply chains.
🏛政策担当者:Shows that net-zero policies risk undermining poverty and food production without complementary adaptation supports.
📄 Abstract（原文）
ABSTRACT Typically, the effectiveness of mitigation policy is assessed jointly across environmental, economic, and social dimensions. Agriculture is recognized as the most climate‐sensitive industry and three‐quarters of the global poor depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Hence, employing net‐zero targets for 143 nations as a novel angle, this study designed a multi‐period difference‐in‐differences model to assess this statement, with a particular focus on its agricultural economic impact. Results indicated that mitigation policy is expected to reduce agricultural output value by 7.9% and the magnitude of emission reduction is nearly half that of output reduction. This finding implies that decarbonization is not merely a sacrifice of agricultural output, but may lead to its destruction. Moreover, mitigation policy exhibits a statistically significant negative impact on no poverty. Notably, observed output losses is primarily attributed to stagnant mitigation technology. Fortunately, this study identified that the output‐enhancing effect of adaptation policy can largely compensate for these losses. To achieve a sustainable future, global entities must collectively optimize the deployment of climate action across multiple fronts to practically enhance the effectiveness of mitigation policy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.70111first seen 2026-05-14 22:21:44
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