2050年に向けた多様なネットゼロ移行シナリオによるフランスの大気質改善の健康・経済便益

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🔬研究者:シナリオ間で健康便益がほぼ同等である点は、移行経路設計における大気質コベネフィットの頑健性を示す重要な知見。

🏛政策担当者:脱炭素政策の評価に健康・経済コベネフィットを組み込むことで、より野心的な緩和策の根拠を強化できる。

BACKGROUND Climate mitigation can deliver substantial air quality co-benefits, yet these remain poorly quantified across pathways ranging from sufficiency-to technology-driven transitions. This study compares four French energy-transition scenarios for 2030 and 2050 against a 2019 baseline under fixed meteorology, evaluating annual PM2.5 and NO2 concentration changes and health and economic co-benefits. METHODS PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations for 2030 and 2050 were estimated with the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model using scenario-specific emission projections. Health impacts relative to 2019 were assessed via disease-specific lag assumptions, covering yearly premature mortality, morbidity, DALYs, and economic benefits across nine cardiometabolic and respiratory outcomes (hypertension, lung cancer, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, COPD, type-2 diabetes, respiratory infections, asthma in children and adults). FINDINGS Annual population-weighted exposure in continental France is projected to fall by 24% (PM2.5) and 45% (NO2) by 2030, and by 40% (PM2.5) and 75% (NO2) by 2050, relative to 2019 consistently under all four 2050 transition scenarios. Health gains, assessed over each period under delayed-impact assumptions, were substantial and broadly consistent across the four scenarios. Annual avoided premature deaths are projected to reach 8,800-9,300 (PM2.5) and 11,000-12,800 (NO2) by 2030, rising to 21,300-22,100 (PM2.5) and 24,500-26,200 (NO2) by 2050. Avoided morbidity cases reached nearly 40,000 (PM2.5) and 15,000 (NO2) by 2030 to 68,000 (PM2.5) and 20,300 (NO2) by 2050, with DALYs averted increasing from nearly 150,000 in 2030 to 230,000 by 2050 across the pollutants. By 2050, direct lifetime medical cost savings reached approximately €780-810 (S4-S1) million/year for PM2.5 and were markedly smaller for NO2, at approximately €60-64 million/year (S4-S1). Annual intangible cost savings (discounted to present value) totalled approximately €19-20 billion for PM2.5 and €17-18 billion for NO2 across S1-S4. CONCLUSION Net-Zero transition can deliver substantial health and economic co-benefits across diverse policy pathways. These findings support integrating co-benefits into climate policy frameworks to strengthen the evidence base for ambitious mitigation action.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2026.110555first seen 2026-10-25 05:18:45 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:21:40