Employment effects of EU-ETS prices
EU-ETS価格の雇用効果 (AI 翻訳)
Christofer Schroeder
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、EU排出権取引制度（EU-ETS）の価格変動が雇用に与える影響を分析。標準的な手法を用いて、雇用の「グリーン」度と汚染度を定義・測定し、価格ショックの動的効果を推定。その結果、1%の価格上昇が約0.2%の雇用減少をもたらし、特に汚染度の高い職種で影響が大きいことが判明。無償排出枠の配分や雇用保護法の厳格さが応答を左右することを示した。
English
This paper analyzes the employment effects of carbon pricing under the EU-ETS. Using standard methods to define green and polluting jobs, it estimates that a 1% price increase leads to a 0.2% decline in employment after 1.5 years, with stronger effects on polluting jobs. Free allowance allocation and employment protection legislation shape these responses.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではカーボンプライシング（GX-ETS・炭素税）の導入が検討されているが、本論文は価格上昇が雇用に与える悪影響を定量的に示しており、政策設計における雇用対策の重要性を強調している。特に無償排出枠の配分や雇用保護法制の調整が、雇用影響を緩和する手段として示唆される。
In the global GX context
This study provides crucial evidence for global carbon pricing design, showing that negative employment effects can be mitigated through free allowance allocation and labor protection laws. It offers a framework for evaluating the labor market consequences of carbon pricing, relevant for EU ETS Phase IV review and other jurisdictions like the US and China.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides causal estimates of carbon pricing on employment and identifies moderating factors like allowance allocation and employment protection.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for corporate sustainability teams on how carbon pricing may affect workforce, useful for transition planning.
🏛政策担当者:Quantifies trade-offs between climate policy and employment, highlighting policy design elements to mitigate adverse impacts.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper studies the employment effects of carbon pricing under the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS). I refer to standard methods from the literature to define and measure the environmental properties of jobs along two dimensions: how “green” a job is, and how polluting it is. I then leverage a series of shocks to EU-ETS prices to estimate their dynamic impacts on employment. The panel local projections estimates reveal that an exogenous 1% increase in EU-ETS prices leads to a roughly 0.2% decline in employment after one and a half years. Impacts on employment in more polluting jobs are estimated to be even stronger, while impacts on employment in greener jobs are also estimated to be negative, albeit less pronounced. Two factors play an important role in shaping these responses: the allocation of free emissions allowances and the stringency of employment protection legislation. When relatively fewer emissions are covered by free allowances, the negative employment effects of EU-ETS price shocks are stronger. Similarly, when employment protection is greater, the estimated impact is more muted. Average weekly hours of work is found to be an additional margin along which EU-ETS prices impact employment yet the estimated effects are relatively small and short-lived. Together, these findings underscore the economic consequences of carbon pricing, offering valuable insights for policymakers balancing climate objectives with labour market considerations.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6835727first seen 2026-05-30 05:17:07 · last seen 2026-06-03 05:15:23
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