中国における穀物生産の空間的シフトが農業脆弱性に与える影響の評価：自然を基盤とした解決策への示唆
Assessing the impacts of spatial shifts in grain production on agricultural vulnerability in China: implications for nature-based solutions (原題)
Jianzhi Liu, Ruru Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の穀物生産の空間的シフトが農業脆弱性に与える影響を、2010～2022年の都市別データと反実仮想分解法で分析。シフトは収量変動と脆弱性を増加させ、新興生産基地は気候リスクや労働力流出などの課題を抱える。自然を基盤とした適応策を含む空間的ガバナンスの必要性を提唱。
English
This study analyzes how spatial shifts in grain production in China affect agricultural vulnerability using prefecture-level data from 2010-2022. It finds that shifts increased yield variability and vulnerability, with emerging production areas facing high climate risks and limited resources. Proposes a U-shaped spatial continuum model and policy implications integrating nature-based solutions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の農業政策や地域振興において、気候変動適応策を自然基盤型で統合する視点は参考になる。ただし、中国特有の空間的シフトの文脈が中心であり、日本への直接適用には注意が必要。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global scholarship on climate risk and agricultural adaptation, particularly the role of spatial dynamics in vulnerability. It offers insights for nature-based solutions in agricultural policy, relevant to regions facing similar shifts due to climate change.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:農業脆弱性の空間分析と気候リスクの関連を理解するための実証的枠組みを提供。
🏢実務担当者:サプライチェーンにおける農業調達リスクの評価に示唆。
🏛政策担当者:気候適応策を空間的視点で統合する政策立案に参考。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Against the backdrop of economic expansion and climate warming, spatial shifts in grain production in China have continuously moved toward relatively economically underdeveloped and climatically marginal regions. However, how these spatial shifts affect agricultural vulnerability and what underlying economic-geographical mechanisms drive these effects remain insufficiently explored. Using prefecture-level city data in China and applying a counterfactual decomposition approach together with nonparametric testing, this study investigates these issues. The results show that, during 2010–2022, spatial shifts in grain production in China exhibited a U-shaped relationship with both grain yield variability and the agricultural vulnerability index, with most regions concentrated on the right side of the turning point of the curve. In other words, many grain yield growth regions were areas with high agricultural vulnerability. Spatial shifts in grain production during 2010–2022 increased grain yield variability and the agricultural vulnerability index by 3.07% and 5.07%, respectively. Rapid grain yield growth areas (e.g., emerging grain-production bases) face relatively high climate risks, low crop diversity and multiple cropping index, labor outmigration and limited agricultural inputs, weak local fiscal capacity for agricultural investment, and low rural incomes, which are the key mechanisms through which spatial shifts aggravate agricultural vulnerability. Finally, this study proposes a “U-shaped spatial continuum model” to provide theoretical insights into the impacts of spatial shifts in grain production on agricultural vulnerability, and on this basis offers policy implications for governing agricultural vulnerability in China from a spatial perspective that integrates nature-based, engineered, and input-based adaptation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1921926first seen 2026-09-05 05:12:32
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