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The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Transport Emissions Driven by Renewable Energy and Innovation

再生可能エネルギーとイノベーションが牽引する輸送排出量における環境クズネッツ曲線 (AI 翻訳)

Delfin-Ortega OV

Research Squareプレプリント2026-05-19#エネルギー転換Origin: Global
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9329208/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9329208/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

44カ国1990~2024年のパネルデータを用い、輸送由来CO₂排出量の決定要因を分析。再生可能エネルギー普及と技術革新は排出削減に有意な効果(弾力性-0.39、-0.61)を示し、制度の質が最も強力な長期削減要因(-1.07)である。EKC仮説を支持し、脱炭素には制度改革とグリーン技術普及の統合的施策が不可欠と結論。

English

This study analyzes transport CO₂ emissions across 44 countries (1990-2024), finding robust evidence for the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Renewable energy and innovation significantly reduce emissions (elasticities -0.39 and -0.61), while institutional quality is the strongest long-term mitigant (-1.07). The paper argues transport sustainability requires integrated policy reform, green technology diffusion, and systemic energy transformation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では運輸部門の脱炭素が課題であり、制度の質の重要性を示す本論文の知見は、規制枠組みや補助金制度の強化に示唆を与える。再生可能エネルギー導入の効果が定量的に示されており、日本のエネルギー政策にも関連。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to the global transport decarbonization literature by highlighting the role of institutional quality alongside renewable energy and innovation. It provides cross-country evidence for the EKC hypothesis, relevant for international climate policy design.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Offers robust cross-country evidence on transport EKC and the relative impact of renewables, innovation, and institutions.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights that institutional reform is critical for long-term transport decarbonization, beyond just technology adoption.

🏛政策担当者:Suggests that improving governance and institutional quality can be powerful levers for breaking carbon lock-in in transport.

📄 Abstract(原文)

<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study investigates the macro-structural determinants of transport-related CO₂ emissions for a global panel of 44 countries over the period 1990–2024. Adopting a second-generation econometric framework, the research employs the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and PMG-ARDL estimators to account for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. The empirical results provide robust evidence for the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the transport sector, identifying a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon intensity. Furthermore, the findings reveal that renewable energy penetration and technological innovation exert significant negative impacts on emissions, with elasticities of -0.39 and − 0.61, respectively. Notably, institutional quality emerges as the most potent long-term mitigant (-1.07), suggesting that governance frameworks are the primary catalysts for breaking carbon lock-in. The study concludes that achieving transport sustainability requires a synchronized policy mix that integrates deep institutional reform with green technological diffusion and systemic energy transformation.</p>

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