How Carbon Price Shocks Reshape Built-Environment Supply Formation: Evidence from Construction Activity in China
炭素価格ショックが建築環境の供給形成をどのように変えるか：中国の建設活動からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)
Yanjie Ou, Luqi Wang, Fengyi Zheng, Yue Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国の建設活動に対する炭素価格ショックの影響を、2014年1月から2025年10月の月次データを用いて分析。加法的ベイジアンネットワークと時変パラメータVARにより、炭素価格ショックが主に6～12ヶ月の中期で住宅着工・施工面積を抑制し、2021年の全国排出権取引制度導入後にその影響が強まることを示した。
English
This study examines how carbon price shocks affect construction activity in China using monthly data from January 2014 to October 2025. Applying additive Bayesian networks and time-varying SVAR, it finds that carbon price shocks mainly depress housing starts and area under construction at medium horizons (6-12 months), with stronger effects after the launch of the national emissions trading system in July 2021.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では2023年にGX-ETSが始動したが、本論文は炭素価格が建設バリューチェーンに与える波及効果を定量的に示しており、日本の排出権取引制度設計や建設業の脱炭素政策の参考になる。
In the global GX context
While focused on China, this paper provides rigorous empirical evidence on how carbon pricing reshapes supply-side decisions in construction, a sector often considered hard-to-abate. The methodology (ABN + TVP-SVAR) is transferable to other countries implementing carbon pricing, and the findings on transmission channels (materials costs, financing, timing) inform global carbon market policy evaluation.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust empirical framework (ABN + TVP-SVAR) to study carbon price transmission in a key emissions sector, with clear evidence on time-varying effects and horizon-dependent impacts.
🏢実務担当者:Construction firms and investors can use these insights to anticipate how carbon pricing volatility affects project timelines, costs, and financing conditions, informing procurement and transition-finance strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence on the timing and magnitude of carbon price impacts on construction activity, useful for designing carbon market rules, monitoring effectiveness, and coordinating with industrial policy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Decarbonizing the built environment depends not only on improving operational efficiency but also on how supply is formed along the construction chain. Carbon pricing may reshape that process through upstream material costs, financing conditions, and project timing, yet evidence on the timing and stability remains limited. This study examines how carbon-price shocks are transmitted to construction activity in China and whether this transmission changed after the launch of the national emissions trading system (ETS) in July 2021. Using monthly data from January 2014 to October 2025, the analysis first applies additive Bayesian network (ABN) structure learning to identify links among carbon-market conditions, material costs, finance, and construction activity and then estimates a time-varying structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR) to trace dynamic responses across regimes. The results show that carbon-price shocks mainly depress housing starts and area under construction at medium horizons, especially around 6–12 months, with stronger contraction around the 2021 transition and easing later. Allowance trading volume responds positively on impact, but this sensitivity weakens in the post-2021 period. Forecast error variance decompositions further show that carbon-price shocks become an important source of medium- and long-horizon fluctuations. At the 12-month horizon, they account for 18.7% and 18.4% of the forecast-error variance of housing starts in the pre- and post-2021 regimes, and 13.7% and 10.8% of that of trading volume. Overall, the findings point to a project-cycle channel through which carbon pricing reshapes built-environment supply formation, with implications for procurement, transition finance, and the evaluation of carbon-market effectiveness in construction.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16112097first seen 2026-05-27 04:53:24
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