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地政学的リスク、経済政策不確実性、貿易政策不確実性は中国企業の炭素移行リスクを左右するか

Do Geopolitical Risk, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Trade Policy Uncertainty Drive Corporate Carbon Transition Risk in China? (原題)

Ijaz Younis, Kun Su, M. Omair Ahmad, Himani Gupta, Waheed Ullah Shah

Business Strategy and the Environment📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-11-02#気候リスクOrigin: CN対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.1002/bse.71728
原典: https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.71728

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国企業の炭素移行リスク（CTR）に対し、地政学的リスク・経済政策不確実性・貿易政策不確実性が与える影響を2010〜2022年のデータで分析。分位点回帰やウェーブレット相関を用い、不確実性の上昇は中程度までCTRを高めるが極端な水準では効果が弱まる非線形・非対称な関係を示す。影響はレジーム依存かつ時間変動的であり、適応的な低炭素戦略の必要性を強調する。

English

Using quantile-on-quantile regression, Granger causality, and wavelet quantile correlation on Chinese data from 2010–2022, this study examines how geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and trade policy uncertainty affect corporate carbon transition risk (CTR). Uncertainty generally raises CTR at low-to-moderate levels but effects weaken or reverse at extremes, and transmission is regime-dependent and time-varying. Findings argue for uncertainty-specific, adaptive low-carbon strategies.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国の炭素移行リスクがマクロ不確実性にどう反応するかを示す実証研究で、日本企業にとっては中国サプライチェーン・投資先の移行リスク評価やシナリオ分析の感応度設計に示唆を与える。SSBJのシナリオ分析や気候関連リスクの定量的評価を検討する日本企業の参考になりうる。

In the global GX context

Adds empirical evidence that transition risk exposure is not uniform but regime- and horizon-dependent, relevant to TCFD/ISSB scenario analysis and climate-risk quantification for corporates with China exposure. It supports moving beyond static transition-risk assumptions toward state-contingent modeling in disclosure practice.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Transition-risk modeling should account for nonlinear, quantile- and horizon-dependent responses to macro uncertainty rather than assuming linear effects.

🏢実務担当者:Firms with China operations or supply chains can use these regime-dependent findings to stress-test transition-risk scenarios under varying policy and geopolitical uncertainty.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note that extreme uncertainty can blunt carbon-transition pressure, implying a role for stable, predictable climate policy signals.

📄 Abstract（原文）

ABSTRACT This study examines the effects of geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on corporate CTR in China from January 2010 to December 2022. Using a combination of complementary quantile‐based approaches, including quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QoQR), quantile‐on‐quantile Granger causality (QoQGC), and wavelet quantile correlation (WQC), this study reveals substantial nonlinear, asymmetric, and time–frequency‐dependent relationships between external uncertainty and corporate CTR. The QoQR results show that GPR, EPU, and TPU generally increase corporate CTR as uncertainty rises from low to moderate levels; however, their marginal effects weaken and, in some regimes, become negative at extreme uncertainty levels. The QoQGC results reveal that predictive causality varies across uncertainty regimes: GPR and EPU exhibit strong predictive relevance at extreme uncertainty levels, whereas TPU shows predictive relevance across a broader range of low‐to‐moderate uncertainty regimes. The WQC results demonstrate that the uncertainty–CTR relationship also varies across both the CTR distribution and time‐frequency dimensions, with stronger positive co‐movement generally observed at middle‐to‐upper CTR quantiles and over medium‐ to long‐run horizons. Overall, the findings demonstrate that external uncertainty does not affect corporate CTR uniformly; rather, its transmission is regime‐dependent and time‐varying, highlighting the importance of uncertainty‐specific and adaptive strategies to support China's low‐carbon transition.

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