カザフスタンはどれだけ早く石炭から脱却しているか：2000-2025年の電力における石炭比率の中国・ロシア・ウズベキスタン・キルギスとの比較

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:石炭比率の低下速度を国際比較する際のデータソース間乖離と定義依存性を示す好例。

🏢実務担当者:中央アジアの電力インフラ・調達に関わる企業が地域の脱炭素ペースを把握する材料になる。

🏛政策担当者:統計とEmber等の第三者データの整合性確保が政策評価に重要であることを示唆する。

Coal still produces most of Kazakhstan's electricity. This study asks how fast the coal share of electricity has been falling in Kazakhstan compared with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and China, and from what moment Kazakhstan began to lag behind. Yearly data for 2000-2025 from the Ember electricity dataset were used, and the Kazakh figures were compared with the national statistics committee, the system operator KEGOC and the Ministry of Energy. Only China had a coal share as high as Kazakhstan's and reduced it steadily; in Russia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan coal was a small and not declining share. Over 2011-2025 as a whole, Kazakhstan's coal share fell about as fast as China's in the Ember data (1.6 and 1.5 percentage points per year), and slightly slower (1.3-1.4) with data only to 2022 or with the Ministry of Energy's figure for 2025. The main visible difference is in the middle of the period: from 2015 to 2019 Kazakhstan's coal share did not fall (70.6% in 2015, 70.4% in 2019), while China's fell by 1.2 points per year, and from 2017 to 2022 Kazakhstan's share was above China's. With five years of data this pause is descriptive, not statistically certain, and the year in which the lag "began" depends on how lag is defined. The clearer gap is in clean electricity: the non-fossil share of Kazakhstan's electricity fell to 8-10% in 2008-2014 and returned to 14.9% in 2025, about where it was in 2000, while China's rose from 17.9% to 41.6%. How far coal has fallen since 2022 depends on the source: Ember gives 54.3% for 2025, a 2026 Ministry of Energy statement gives 62.1%.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23772180first seen 2026-10-30 04:13:58 · last seen 2026-11-01 04:13:33