The Middle East Conflict and Its Implications for Global Supply Chains: An ASEAN Perspective
中東紛争とグローバルサプライチェーンへの影響：ASEANの視点 (AI 翻訳)
Sukardi, Dr. Benius, M.M., Ph. D, Dr. Alexandra Hukom, S.E., M. Si
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は2020～2025年の中東紛争がASEAN経済に与える影響を、パネル回帰、VAR、イベント研究を統合して分析。原油価格上昇がインフレ、通貨安、物流コスト増を引き起こすことを実証。政策としてエネルギー多角化と再生可能エネルギー投資を提案。
English
This study analyzes the impact of Middle East conflicts on ASEAN economies using panel regression, VAR, and event study. It finds oil price shocks significantly increase inflation, currency depreciation, and logistics costs. Policy implications include energy diversification and renewable energy investment.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ASEANの視点から中東依存のリスクを定量化し、エネルギー転換の必要性を裏付ける。日本のASEANエネルギー協力にも示唆。
In the global GX context
Provides empirical evidence for ASEAN's vulnerability to Middle East shocks, reinforcing the rationale for energy transition and regional logistics integration. Relevant for global supply chain resilience discussions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodological integration of three quantitative approaches offers a framework for analyzing geopolitical shocks.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights need for energy diversification and LNG cooperation to reduce dependency on Middle East routes.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines the systemic impact of Middle East conflicts on global supply chains and ASEAN’s economic stability during 2020–2025. Employing a novel methodological integration of panel regression (Fixed Effect/Random Effect), vector autoregression (VAR), and event study analysis, the research provides a multidimensional perspective on how geopolitical shocks propagate through energy markets, logistics costs, and macroeconomic indicators. The findings reveal that oil price shocks and geopolitical risks significantly increase global logistics costs, inflation, and currency depreciation across ASEAN economies. Empirical evidence shows that a US$10 increase in Brent oil prices raises ASEAN inflation by 0.27% and weakens the Indonesian Rupiah by Rp350/USD, while VAR impulse responses confirm cumulative effects of +2.8% inflation and Rp2,500/USD depreciation within five quarters. Event studies highlight abnormal shocks in inflation (Philippines 7.7%), trade deficits (Indonesia US$13.2 billion), and disruptions in manufacturing sectors such as automotive, textiles, and electronics. The originality of this research lies in its simultaneous application of three quantitative approaches to capture causal relationships, dynamic responses, and event-specific abnormalities, offering a comprehensive framework rarely applied in ASEAN-focused studies. Beyond academic contribution, the study underscores policy implications: ASEAN must accelerate energy diversification, strengthen LNG cooperation with regional partners, invest in renewable energy, and enhance regional logistics integration. These strategies are essential to reduce dependency on Middle Eastern energy routes and to build resilience against future geopolitical shocks.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/20304579first seen 2026-05-21 04:16:59 · last seen 2026-05-22 04:18:12
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