経済・政策・技術制約下におけるメガシティの多次元インタラクティブ産業カーボンニュートラル経路：LEAP・システムダイナミクス・技術成熟度の結合モデルからの洞察

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:統合モデリング（LEAP-SD-TRL）と感度分析の手法は、都市・産業脱炭素経路研究の定量基盤として有用。

🏢実務担当者:技術成熟度と政策タイミングを考慮した投資判断・移行計画の枠組みとして、産業部門の長期戦略策定に活用可能。

🏛政策担当者:GDP成長と脱炭素の両立可能性、再生可能エネルギー・水素の役割、政策強度の感度を示し、都市政策の優先順位設計に示唆。

The challenge of industrial decarbonization in megacities lies in the gap between carbon-neutrality targets and implementable pathways constrained by multi-dimensional interactive factors from technology maturity, policy timing, and the carbon intensity of energy supply. To address this challenge, a novel loosely coupled model using Long-term Energy Alternatives Planning-System, Dynamics-Technology and Readiness Level (LEAP-TRL-SD) model was developed to design implementable industrial carbon-neutrality pathways by integrating economic growth, policy feedback, and maturity-constrained technology deployment, achieving an accuracy of 95.6%. The LEAP model was employed to simulate industry restructuring–driven changes in energy demand and energy carriers, SD was applied to represent dynamic interactions among economic development, policy intervention, and technological progress, and TRL was used to constrain technology deployment timing. Application to Beijing indicated that the optimal scenario reduced carbon emissions from a peak of 161.8 million tons (Mt) to 7.3 Mt. Approximately 81.7% of this reduction was derived from renewable energy-based electricity (83.4%), heat (13%), and hydrogen (3.6%). Sensitivity analysis further identified GDP growth rate as the dominant driver, with a ±10% change leading to an 11.01% deviation in energy demand. This was followed by renewable energy substitution ratio (±6.2–6.6%), process optimization technologies (±3.1%), and policy intensity (±0.32%). By 2050, Beijing's carbon neutrality pathway sustains a 2.8-fold economic growth while reducing emissions to 7.3 Mt, with high-tech service sectors expanding to 50% of industry and average technological decarbonization efficiency rising by 28.5%. The LEAP–TRL–SD model provided a quantitative and practical tool for designing phased, implementable industrial decarbonization strategies under multi-dimensional interactive real-world economic, technological, and policy constraints.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.149638first seen 2026-10-13 04:37:40