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Critical and bulk material considerations for designing low-carbon transport-energy pathways in Kenya

ケニアにおける低炭素交通エネルギー経路設計のための重要バルク材料の考慮事項 (AI 翻訳)

Karla Cervantes Barron, James Dixon, Joshua Oduor, Dominic Kemei, Ignatius Maranga, Patrick Mwanzia, Elena Pierard, Christian Brand, Fatima Afifah, Jonathan Cullen

Strathprints: The University of Strathclyde institutional repository (University of Strathclyde)📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-07-01#EV・輸送Origin: Global経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: transport
原典: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/view/author/1055941.html>

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、ケニアの交通・エネルギー未来に向けた重要・バルク材料需要とそれに伴う排出量を、ボトムアップモデルTEAM-Kenyaと材料需要予測ツールMat-dpを用いて評価した。4つのシナリオは政府関与の度合いによって異なり、公共交通インフラとアクセス可能な融資を優先するシナリオでは電化に伴う材料需要が高まる一方、全体的な排出量と燃料輸入依存度は低減する。電化率の高いシナリオでは重要鉱物需要が2050年に0.13Mtに達し、バッテリー材料と非アルミニウム金属のシェアが拡大する。高電化シナリオにおける追加的なバッテリー輸入コストは、節約される年間燃料輸入額の12～19%に過ぎず、化石燃料輸入依存が同等のバッテリー依存に置き換わるわけではないことを示している。

English

This paper evaluates critical and bulk material demand and associated emissions for Kenya's transport-energy futures using a bottom-up model (TEAM-Kenya) and material demand projection tool (Mat-dp). Four pathways with varying government involvement show that prioritizing public transit and accessible finance increases material demand for electrification but reduces overall emissions and fuel import dependency. Critical mineral demand reaches 0.13 Mt by 2050 in high-electrification scenarios, with battery materials and non-aluminum metals growing from 19-22% to 42-48% of critical material demand. Additional battery import costs under high electrification offset only 12-19% of annual fuel import savings, indicating fossil fuel dependence is not replaced by equivalent battery dependence.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

ケニアを事例とした本分析は、日本の途上国支援や国際的なサプライチェーン戦略において、電化と公共交通のバランス、そして重要鉱物の需給見通しを考慮する際の参考となる。日本企業にとっては、アフリカ市場でのEV普及に伴う材料調達リスク評価に活用できる。

In the global GX context

This study contributes to global discourse on low-carbon transport by quantifying material demand and trade-offs between electrification and public transit. It provides evidence that electrification does not simply shift import dependence from oil to batteries, offering insights for countries designing integrated transport and resource policies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:The TEAM-Kenya and Mat-dp modeling framework offers a replicable approach for assessing material-emissions trade-offs in transport-energy pathways.

🏢実務担当者:Automotive and battery supply chain planners can use the material demand projections to anticipate critical mineral requirements for East African markets.

🏛政策担当者:The finding that battery import costs are a fraction of fuel savings supports coordinated policies for electrification and mass transit to balance resource use and emissions.

📄 Abstract（原文）

This paper evaluates critical and bulk material demand and associated emissions for Kenya's transport-energy futures using a bottom-up transport-energy-environment model (TEAM-Kenya) and a material demand projection tool (Mat-dp). Four pathways reflect varying levels of government involvement, shaping divergent pathways for transport electrification, vehicle ownership, and public transit to 2050. Scenarios prioritising public transport infrastructure and accessible finance drive higher material demand linked to electrification but yield lower overall emissions and reduced fuel import dependency, which consumes a significant proportion of Kenya's foreign exchange requirements. Scenarios with minimal government intervention sustain reliance on internal combustion engine vehicles, producing higher fuel imports despite lower vehicle material demand. Critical minerals and material demand grows under high electrification pathways reaching 0.13 Mt by 2050 in the highest-electrification scenarios and 0.07 Mt in the lowest. Battery materials and non-aluminium metals together rise from 19 to 22% of critical material demand in 2025 to 42–48% by 2050 in high electrification pathways but only reach 18% in the lowest electrification pathway. Embodied emissions from material production reach 1.8–2.3 Mt CO2e for bulk materials and 1.0–1.3 Mt CO2e for critical materials by 2050, an order of magnitude below direct transport emissions. The additional battery-import cost under high-electrification pathways offsets only 12–19% of the annual fuel-import saving they deliver, indicating that fossil-fuel import dependence is not substituted for an equivalent battery dependency. These findings underscore the importance of coordinated policy support for electrification and mass transit to balance material resource needs with emissions reductions.

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