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都市の脱炭素化戦略：既存建築ストックのエネルギー・経済・環境性能に関する統合的評価

Kentsel Karbonsuzlaştırma Stratejileri: Mevcut Bir Yapı Stokunun Enerji, Ekonomi ve Çevresel Performansına İlişkin Bütünleşik Bir Değerlendirme (原題)

Cihat İlkbahar

OpenMETU (Middle East Technical University)ジャーナル2026-10-14#省エネ経営インパクト: コスト削減対象セクター: real_estate
原典: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/121158

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

イスタンブールの混合用途地区（2,455棟）を対象に、UBEMを用いた多目的評価枠組みを構築。断熱・ヒートポンプ・PVの改修を、将来気候・炭素強度・エネルギー価格を組み込んだ25年 horizonで評価。資本費・運用費にCO2の金銭換算環境コストを統合し、割引率別に最適改修シナリオと投資閾値を同定。改修遅延のコストも定量化する。

English

An Urban Building Energy Modeling framework integrates economic, environmental, and monetized carbon costs to evaluate renovation scenarios (insulation, heat pumps, PV) across 2,455 buildings in Istanbul's Kadıköy. Scenarios run 2025–2050 under two climate/grid/price futures at 3–8% discount rates, identifying investment thresholds and optimal scenarios balancing private finance and public climate goals. It also quantifies the cost of delaying renovation by 5–15 years.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

既存建築ストックの改修を投資回収と炭素コストで統合評価する手法は、日本の省エネ改修支援策や建築物の脱炭素化政策、不動産の脱炭素投資判断に示唆を与える。割引率別の投資閾値分析は国内の改修インセンティブ設計の参考になる。

In the global GX context

Offers a replicable UBEM-based multi-objective method that monetizes carbon and quantifies the cost of delay—directly relevant to EU EPBD renovation-wave policy and to transition-finance decisions on building retrofit portfolios under ISSB/CSRD disclosure of climate-related capex.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:建物ストックの改修評価に炭素の金銭換算と遅延コストを統合する多目的UBEM枠組みの実装例として有用。

🏢実務担当者:改修投資の閾値と割引率感度を把握でき、不動産・施設の脱炭素投資判断やScope1/2削減計画に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:改修遅延の経済的損失を定量化し、省エネ改修インセンティブや炭素価格設計の根拠を提供する。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Building energy renovation is a critical pathway for cities aiming to achieve a clean energy transition and mitigate climate change, and determining optimal renovation scenarios requires analysis of trade-offs among investments, savings, and environmental impacts. While traditional analyses focus on financial and environmental aspects separately, this study presents an Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) based multi-objective analysis framework that integrates economic assessment, environmental impact, and monetized environmental costs. The analysis is applied to a mixed-use neighborhood in Istanbul, Kadıköy, including 2,455 buildings. The study evaluates energy renovations, including insulation, heat pump installation, and photovoltaics, and accounts for future climate impacts and carbon intensities. All scenarios are evaluated over a 25-year horizon (2025–2050) under two futures that combine a climate projection, a grid emission factor trajectory, and an energy price path, assessed at real discount rates of 8 %, 5 %, and 3 %. The study quantifies total costs by combining capital expenditures and operational expenditures with the monetized environmental costs of CO2 emissions. This approach identifies investment thresholds and optimal renovation scenarios that satisfy both private financial interests and public climate objectives. The framework is also used to measure the cost of delay, showing how much of the achievable abatement and of the financial return is lost when renovation is postponed by five, ten, or fifteen years. The results provide decision-makers with quantitative pathways for long-term climate action by revealing the true economic value of sustainable renovation.

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