単一排出主体が過去排出を相殺するための二酸化炭素除去遅延の気候影響
Climate impact of delayed carbon dioxide removal by a single emitting entity to compensate for their legacy emissions (原題)
Tuvshinjargal Otgonbayar, Marco Mazzotti
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
企業が過去の「レガシー排出」をCDRで相殺する際、排出と除去の時間的ずれが温暖化効果を生む点を簡易線形気候モデルで分析した。早期かつ低速のCDR展開が、遅延した高速展開より良好な気候結果をもたらすことを示す。排出量を上回る除去は遅延の影響を緩和し、特に長期的影響に有効である。単純な質量バランスでは不十分で、時間動態を考慮すべきと提言する。
English
Using a simplified linear climate model, this study examines how the temporal mismatch between legacy emissions and delayed CDR affects climate outcomes for corporate net-zero entities. Earlier CDR deployment, even at slower rates, yields better climate results than delayed, faster deployment. Removing more CO2 than originally emitted can offset delayed action, especially for long-term impacts. Simple mass-balance accounting is insufficient; temporal dynamics must be considered.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
企業のカーボンクレジット・CDR調達やネットゼロ目標の設計に直結し、SSBJや統合報告書でのオフセット開示の妥当性を問う視点を提供する。日本企業がレガシー排出相殺を対外表記する際の時間軸考慮の根拠となりうる。
In the global GX context
Speaks directly to ISSB/CSRD disclosure of offsets and net-zero claims, challenging the mass-balance assumption underlying corporate carbon-neutrality pledges. Relevant to transition-finance scrutiny of CDR-based compensation strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:CDRの時間動態と気候指標の関係を定量化する枠組みを、より精緻なモデルへ拡張する出発点となる。
🏢実務担当者:レガシー排出の相殺計画では、量だけでなくCDR展開の時期と速度を開示・設計に組み込む必要がある。
🏛政策担当者:ネットゼロ主張やオフセット規制において、質量バランスだけでなく時間軸を考慮した基準設計を促す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is increasingly recognized as a key component of climate strategies to offset unabatable residual emissions on the path to net zero. In recent years, corporations in particular have shown growing interest in using CDR to offset their historical or “legacy” emissions. However, the prevailing assumption that one tonne of CO 2 removed today cancels a tonne emitted in the past neglects the temporal mismatch between emissions and removals, during which CO 2 exerts a warming effect. This paper considers specific entities that emit a very small fraction of global emissions, have a net-zero carbon goal and pledge to compensate for their legacy emissions. It examines the effectiveness of such compensation through climate consequences of delayed CDR, arguing that a simple mass-balance approach may not be sufficient. Using a simplified linear climate model, we analyze the impact of the timing and rate of CDR deployment on two complementary climate metrics: peak surface temperature and abyssal ocean temperature anomaly, reflecting direct short-term and long-term cumulative impacts, respectively. Our results show that earlier CDR deployment, even at slower rates, yields a more favorable climate outcome than delayed, faster deployment. The analysis also reveals that removing more CO 2 than was originally emitted can help mitigate the effects of delayed action, particularly for long-term climate impacts. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for temporal dynamics in climate mitigation strategies. Our work aims to inform corporate climate policies and encourage further scientific discourse on the dynamic effects of legacy emissions and legacy removals.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2026.104806first seen 2026-10-31 04:49:32
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