Challenges and prospects of achieving India’s 2070 Net Zero Target
インドの2070年ネットゼロ目標達成の課題と展望 (AI 翻訳)
Elena Tabakova
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はインドの2070年カーボンニュートラル達成の可能性と障害を、森林被覆率、再生可能エネルギー比率、中間所得層の収入などの要因を用いてARDLモデルで分析。再生可能エネルギー比率の拡大は遅延効果が顕著であり、中間所得層の影響は一貫性に欠ける。気候政策と社会経済的優先事項の間の矛盾を明らかにし、低炭素目標と急速な経済成長・人口動態変化のバランスの難しさを指摘している。
English
This study examines India's prospects of achieving carbon neutrality by 2070 using an ARDL model with factors including forest cover, renewable energy share, and middle-class income. Findings show significant but time-varying impacts, with renewable energy exhibiting the strongest delayed effect. It highlights contradictions between climate policies and socio-economic priorities, emphasizing the challenge of balancing low-carbon goals with rapid growth and demographic change.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
インドは日本企業のサプライチェーン上重要な国であり、同国のネットゼロ達成に向けた課題・要因分析は、日本企業のインド投資判断や脱炭素戦略立案に示唆を与える。また、日本の2050年ネットゼロ目標との比較や、アジア全体のエネルギー転換を考える上でも参考になる。
In the global GX context
India's net-zero target is a critical global issue, and this paper provides quantitative evidence on key drivers and barriers. It contributes to the broader understanding of climate policy trade-offs in developing economies, relevant for global frameworks like the Paris Agreement and transition finance discussions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides an econometric framework (ARDL) to analyze long-term emission drivers, with a novel variable (middle-class income) that could be applied to other emerging economies.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for companies with operations or supply chains in India on how renewable energy expansion, forest cover, and income dynamics may affect regulatory and business environments.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the tension between climate goals and development priorities, informing the design of policies that balance economic growth with decarbonization.
📄 Abstract（原文）
When addressing the issue of global climate change, it is crucial to focus on the energy strategies of developing nations, which are predominantly aimed at fostering economic development. India, a major emerging economy and one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitting countries, represents a crucial case for climate change policy research. This study examines India’s prospects of reaching carbon neutrality by 2070 and the obstacles to achieving this goal by looking at main socio-economic and institutional factors. Although existing studies provide extensive qualitative analysis of the phenomena in question, the quantitative assessment of their external drivers remains limited. The study addresses this gap by conducting an econometric analysis of selected factors and by introducing middle-class income as a new explanatory variable for India’s long-term emission trends. Methodologically, the research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the dynamic impact of the selected factors on the intensity of India’s aggregate emissions. The proposed explanatory variables include: the share of forest cover; the share of renewable energy in electricity generation; and the income of the middle-class in India. The analysis shows that each of these factors has a significant impact on the dependent variable. This impact can be immediate or delayed, and it can vary in magnitude and direction. The influence of middle-class income dynamics seems to be the least consistent, while the expansion of renewable energy in electricity generation shows the most pronounced delayed effect. The findings reveal contradictions between national climate policies and socio-economic priorities. They highlight the challenge of balancing low-carbon goals with rapid economic growth and demographic change.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3897/brics-econ.7.e168509first seen 2026-06-11 05:14:43
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