エネルギー転換とCO2の関連の強さを決めるものは何か？メタ分析からの証拠

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🔬研究者:エネルギー転換と排出の実証研究における推定値のばらつき要因を整理する枠組みとして有用。

🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達量だけでなく系統統合・効率化を含む脱炭素戦略設計の根拠として参照できる。

🏛政策担当者:再エネ容量目標偏重を見直し、多次元指標と頑健な評価手法を政策評価に組み込むべき根拠を提供する。

The relationship between energy transition and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions remains empirically unsettled, with reported effects varying substantially across measurement choices, model specifications, and empirical contexts. This paper synthesizes evidence from 64 peer-reviewed studies published between 2012 and 2025 on the relationship between energy transition and CO2 emissions. Using a random-effects meta-regression framework, we examine the main sources of variation in reported estimates. The pooled estimate is −0.19, indicating an average negative association, although its magnitude varies systematically across studies. Composite energy transition indices tend to report stronger mitigation effects than simple proxies, while functional form, estimation method, and country coverage also shape reported results. These findings remain stable across alternative sensitivity analyses. From a policy perspective, the evidence suggests that expanding renewable capacity alone is insufficient. Effective transition strategies should combine energy diversification with grid integration, storage, energy efficiency, and the displacement of fossil-fuel generation, while using multidimensional indicators and robust evaluation methods adapted to national circumstances. By providing the first quantitative synthesis of this literature, this research offers a clearer basis for interpreting existing evidence and designing more effective decarbonization policies. Key policy highlights Energy transition is generally associated with lower CO2 emissions, although the strength of the effect varies across studies and countries. Policies should go beyond renewable capacity targets and also support grid integration, energy storage, efficiency, and the replacement of fossil fuels. Multidimensional indicators provide a better basis for monitoring energy transition than relying only on single measures such as renewable energy consumption. Policy evaluation should use robust empirical methods and account for differences in national energy systems, institutions, and economic conditions.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.34248732first seen 2026-10-30 04:45:19 · last seen 2026-11-05 04:53:04