中国水素エネルギー産業の中長期発展と政策影響のシミュレーション
Simulation of the medium- and long-term development of China's hydrogen energy industry and policy impacts (原題)
Shuangshuang Long, Jingye Liu, Rijia Ding
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の水素エネルギー産業をシステムダイナミクスモデルで中長期予測した研究。現行軌道では2035年にグリーン水素753万トン、政策制約なしではグレー水素が2034年に3451万トンでピークとなり炭素排出678百万トンを伴う。グリーン水素への単位補助金・税優遇・設備更新政策が投資補助や技術進歩単独より有効で、炭素価格が高炭素経路の抑制に最も強い効果を持つ。
English
A system dynamics model forecasts China's hydrogen industry to 2035+. Green hydrogen reaches 7.53 Mt by 2035, while unconstrained gray hydrogen peaks at 34.5 Mt in 2034 with 678 Mt CO2. Per-unit subsidies, tax incentives, and capacity-replacement policies outperform fixed-asset subsidies, and carbon pricing most strongly constrains high-carbon pathways.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の水素政策設計は、日本の水素社会推進法や水素供給コスト低減策、GX推進機構による支援策を検討する際の比較材料となる。炭素価格と補助金の相対的有効性は日本国内の政策議論にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Offers quantitative evidence on which policy instruments (carbon pricing vs. subsidies) most effectively shift hydrogen from fossil to renewable, informing global transition-finance and industrial-policy debates under ISSB/TCFD-aligned decarbonization pathways.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:水素産業のシステムダイナミクスモデリングと政策感度分析の手法・結果を参照できる。
🏢実務担当者:中国市場での水素調達・投資判断や炭素価格リスクの評価に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:水素産業支援における補助金・税制・炭素価格の相対的有効性を政策設計に反映できる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
China's hydrogen supply structure remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, making the promotion of green and low-carbon development in the hydrogen energy industry (HEI) critical for achieving national dual-carbon targets. This study forecasts future trends in China's HEI and explores policy pathways to support its sustainable development. To this end, a system dynamics (SD) model is developed to analyze the medium- and long-term development of China's HEI. The model captures hydrogen production from both fossil-based and renewable sources, while also accounting for carbon emissions from the gray hydrogen sector, and systematically evaluates the impacts of relevant policy interventions. The results indicate that: (1) Under the current development trajectory, green hydrogen production is projected to reach 7.5335 million tonnes (Mt) by 2035, with alkaline water electrolysis remaining the dominant technology. (2) In the absence of policy constraints, gray hydrogen production is expected to peak at 34.5072 Mt in 2034, with associated carbon emissions of 678.2689 Mt, and coal-based hydrogen remaining the primary source. (3) Unit subsidies for green hydrogen, tax incentives, and capacity replacement policies are more effective in promoting green hydrogen development than fixed asset investment subsidies and technological progress alone. (4) Capacity replacement and reduction policies accelerate the timing of peak fossil-based hydrogen production and reduce peak levels, while carbon pricing mechanisms exert stronger effects in constraining high-carbon pathways.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115635first seen 2026-10-22 04:42:20 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:03:10
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