Climate change drives agricultural land use competition in the Paranapanema River Basin, Southeastern Brazil
気候変動がブラジル南東部パラナパネマ川流域の農業土地利用競合を促進する (AI 翻訳)
Argemiro Teixeira Leite‐Filho, Erica A. Canamary, Anaí Floriano Vasconcelos, Daniel Andrés Rodríguez, Jaqueline Carolino Santos, Maria Clara Fava, Minella Alves Martins, Sara Bastos de Oliveira, Javier Tomasella
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ブラジル南東部のパラナパネマ川流域を対象に、気候変動が大豆とサトウキビの農業土地利用競合に与える影響を予測モデルで分析。3つの気候シナリオ（ベースライン、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5）のもとで2030年、2040年、2050年の土地利用変化をシミュレートし、温暖化がサトウキビ拡大と大豆縮小を促進することを示した。バイオ燃料生産増加による炭素緩和の可能性も示唆。
English
This study uses predictive modeling to analyze how climate change will drive competition between soybean and sugarcane in Brazil's Paranapanema River Basin. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, rising temperatures favor sugarcane expansion while suppressing soybean cultivation, leading to pasture decline and increased biofuel production with potential carbon mitigation benefits.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how climate change reshapes agricultural land use, with direct implications for global food and biofuel markets. It underscores the need for integrated land-use policies that balance productivity, carbon mitigation, and climate adaptation, relevant to ISSB's biodiversity and land-use disclosures.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Land-use change modelers can adopt the approach for other regions; climate-agriculture interactions are well-captured.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the tension between agricultural expansion and climate goals, urging diversification and climate-resilient planning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
To meet the growing global demands for food and biofuels, Brazilian soybean and sugarcane production must expand. Consequently, a comprehensive understanding of how climate-induced shifts will drive competition for agricultural land in critical regions is essential for sustainable development. Here, we investigate this potential conflict in the Paranapanema River Basin (PRB), focusing on the competition between soybean and sugarcane planted areas and analyzing how temperature and rainfall seasonality influence land-use decisions. Using predictive modeling, we simulate agricultural land-use changes for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under three climate scenarios (Baseline, SSP 2–4.5, and SSP 5–8.5). Our findings reveal that climate change will significantly reshape agricultural land-use dynamics in the PRB. Rising temperatures generally favor the conversion of pasture, soybean, and mosaic areas to sugarcane, but constrain soybean cultivation. Sugarcane thrives under moderate rainfall seasonality, while soybean expansion is suppressed under moderate (SSP 2–4.5) and high emissions (SSP 5–8.5) scenarios, while sugarcane area expands and pastureland consistently declines. Those trends reflect land-use policy constraints and favor carbon mitigation due to increase biofuel production. The mosaic area remains stable under the Baseline but decreases under the SSP scenarios. The shift from soybean to sugarcane, coupled with the decline in pastureland, underscores the dual pressures of economic demands and climate adaptation. These dynamics could have broader implications for Brazil’s agricultural exports, highlighting the need for diversification and climate-resilient practices. Policymakers must prioritize integrated strategies that balance agricultural productivity with environmental sustainability, while also promoting diversification to reduce reliance on a small number of commodities.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108120first seen 2026-06-25 04:39:21
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