Economic Price Uncertainty, Transition Commodities, and China's Green Bond Market: A Mixed Bibliometric-ARDL Analysis
経済価格の不確実性、移行コモディティ、および中国のグリーンボンド市場：混合計量書誌学-ARDL分析 (AI 翻訳)
Abdihakin Mohamoud Ibrahim
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、経済価格の不確実性と移行コモディティ価格が中国のグリーンボンド市場に与える影響を、混合計量書誌学-ARDLアプローチを用いて分析した。2019～2024年の月次データに基づくARDLモデルは、経済政策不確実性（EPU）と銅価格がグリーンボンド価格に持続的な負の影響を与える一方、原油価格は正の影響を与えることを示す。これらの知見は、政策の不安定性と移行金属コストの上昇がグリーンボンド評価を低下させるが、原油価格高騰時にはグリーンボンドのヘッジ機能が強化されることを示唆する。
English
This study examines how economic price uncertainty and transition commodity prices shape China's green bond market using a mixed bibliometric-ARDL approach. The ARDL model based on monthly data from 2019-2024 finds that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and copper prices have persistently negative effects on green bond prices, while oil prices have a positive impact. These findings imply that policy instability and higher transition-metal costs depress green bond valuations, but elevated oil prices enhance the hedging role of green bonds.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は中国市場に焦点を当てているが、日本においてもグリーンボンド市場は拡大しており、政策不確実性やコモディティ価格がグリーンボンド価格に与える影響の分析は、日本市場参加者にとっても参考になる。特に、SSBJ対応やトランジションファイナンスの文脈で、グリーンボンドの価格変動要因を理解することは重要である。
In the global GX context
This paper provides global insights into the determinants of green bond pricing under economic uncertainty and transition commodity price fluctuations. While focused on China, the findings are relevant for any market developing green bond frameworks, including the ISSB and CSRD contexts where the role of sustainable finance instruments is highlighted.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Offers empirical evidence on how economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices affect green bond valuations, relevant for sustainable finance research.
🏢実務担当者:Provides guidance for green bond issuers and investors on the sensitivity of green bond prices to policy instability and transition commodity costs.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of stable policies and managing transition commodity costs to support the growth of green bond markets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines how economic price uncertainty and transition commodity prices shape China's green bond market using a mixed bibliometric-ARDL approach. A Scopus-based bibliometric analysis of 290 publications from 2018-2024 shows a rapidly expanding, highly collaborative China-focused green bond literature, with an annual growth rate of about 70% and concentrated in a small set of core energy and finance journals. Building on this context, monthly data for 2019-2024 are modelled using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) specification that links China's green bond prices to economic policy uncertainty (EPU), copper prices, and oil prices. The preferred ARDL model confirms cointegration and indicates that EPU and copper exert persistently negative, statistically significant effects on green bond prices, whereas oil prices have a positive impact in both the short-and long-run. These findings imply that policy instability and higher transition-metal costs depress green bond valuations. At the same time, elevated oil prices enhance the hedging role of green bonds against energy-market volatility, offering guidance for investors and Chinese policymakers seeking to deepen sustainable finance.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6428601first seen 2026-06-11 04:52:44 · last seen 2026-06-16 04:33:46
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。