石油・ガス産業における気候誘発性座礁資産リスクの評価フレームワーク

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a novel DCF-based framework integrating fiscal and currency dimensions into stranded asset valuation, useful for extending climate risk models.

🏢実務担当者:Offers a methodology for oil and gas companies and investors to assess asset-level stranded value under transition scenarios, informing impairment tests and investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights sovereign fiscal risk from energy transition, urging governments to incorporate stranded asset exposure into fiscal planning and climate policy.

Abstract Rapid technological change, accelerating energy transition, stricter climate policy, and shifting commodity markets are raising the probability that fossil fuel infrastructure becomes stranded before the end of its economic life. Under net-zero scenarios, stranded value in upstream oil and gas could exceed USD 1 trillion globally, making the integration of stranded asset risk into infrastructure valuation a critical priority for investors, operators, and policymakers. This paper develops a discounted cash flow (DCF) framework to quantify stranded asset risk in Nigerian upstream oil and gas infrastructure, applied to a representative large indigenous Nigerian upstream operator. Assets are revalued under three IEA-aligned scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Stated Policies (STEPS), and Net Zero Emissions (NZE), using asset-level production, cost, and fiscal data calibrated from published financial reports. The Stranded Asset Value (SAV) is measured as the difference between the BAU net present value and the probability-weighted expected value across scenarios. The results yield an SAV of USD 280.15 million, representing 77% of the BAU NPV of USD 362.88 million, equivalent to NGN 427.57 billion at the 2025 CBN rate. Three findings emerge. First, Nigeria's PPT fiscal regime concentrates transition losses disproportionately on the sovereign, with the government take collapsing from 47.1% to 30.6% of gross revenue between BAU and NZE, a sovereign fiscal exposure that existing climate risk frameworks have yet to fully address. Second, a structural cost inversion drives assets toward operational cash flow negativity under NZE, with OPEX rising from 33.0% to 49.5% of gross revenue while CAPEX contracts from 16.0% to 6.0%, constituting a self-reinforcing stranding mechanism beyond price compression alone. Third, the 282% depreciation of the Naira between 2021 and 2025 independently amplified domestic exposure from NGN 111.78 billion to NGN 427.57 billion, and to NGN 560.30 billion under a stress scenario, introducing a currency-compounding dimension absent from existing global stranded-asset frameworks. The findings demonstrate that stranded asset risk in oil-dependent developing economies is simultaneously an investor valuation risk, a sovereign fiscal challenge, and a currency exposure that existing frameworks systematically underestimate. This paper advances a more comprehensive valuation approach applicable to hydrocarbon-dependent economies navigating the global energy transition.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.2118/235099-msfirst seen 2026-08-30 04:34:53