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系統認識型産業脱炭素化：エネルギー集約型産業における電化・水素・炭素回収経路の技術経済評価

Grid-Aware Industrial Decarbonization: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Electrification, Hydrogen, and Carbon Capture Pathways for Energy-Intensive Industries (原題)

Levent Kılıç, Barış Orhan, Emre Dumankaya, Neşet Arzan, Gizem Yumru Alanat, Nurhayat Aydın, Turgut Can Koloğlugil, Ömer Bayraktar, Durmuş Özgür Özdemir, Bora Tüzer, Çağrı Ergül, Özgür Acar, Tolga Uysal

Processes📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-28#エネルギー転換経営インパクト: コスト削減対象セクター: manufacturing
DOI: 10.3390/pr14213451
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/pr14213451

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、電力系統の炭素強度が変化する状況下で、エネルギー集約型連続プロセス産業の脱炭素化経路を評価する技術経済フレームワークを提案する。実データを用いたケース分析により、電化が最も費用対効果の高い初期対策であり、系統脱炭素化に伴いその効果が増大することを示した。水素は技術的ポテンシャルは高いが炭素回避コストが高く、CCSは残余排出の深掘り脱炭素段階で重要となる。単一技術ではなく、運用改善・電化・再エネ・代替燃料・CCSを組み合わせた段階的戦略が実用的であると結論付ける。

English

This study proposes a techno-economic framework to evaluate industrial decarbonization pathways under a transitioning power grid. Using real operational data from an energy-intensive continuous manufacturing facility, it finds electrification is the most cost-effective early-stage option, with GHG reductions rising from 51.2% under current grid conditions to 58.8% under a 2035 decarbonized grid. Hydrogen has high technical potential but higher abatement costs, while carbon capture becomes critical for residual emissions in deep decarbonization. A phased strategy combining operational excellence, electrification, renewables, alternative fuels, and CCS is recommended.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の産業脱炭素政策（GX推進法、エネルギー基本計画）において、電化と水素・CCSの優先順位付けや系統炭素強度の将来シナリオを考慮した投資判断は重要な示唆を与える。特に、企業が長期脱炭素戦略を策定する際に、系統の脱炭素化進行を前提とした電化の評価が求められる点で実務的価値が高い。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to global industrial decarbonization scholarship by demonstrating that electrification pathways must be assessed under future grid carbon intensity, not static assumptions. It aligns with TCFD/ISSB transition planning and offers a replicable decision-support methodology for energy-intensive sectors, relevant to CSRD and SEC climate disclosure contexts where companies must disclose transition risks and opportunities.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:動的な系統炭素強度を組み込んだ産業脱炭素の技術経済評価フレームワークを提供し、電化・水素・CCSの比較分析に新たな視点を与える。

🏢実務担当者:エネルギー集約型製造業の脱炭素ロードマップ策定において、電化を優先しつつ段階的に水素・CCSを組み込む投資判断の参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:産業脱炭素政策において、系統脱炭素化の進展を前提とした電化促進策と、水素・CCSのコスト低減支援のバランスを検討する際の根拠を提供する。

📄 Abstract（原文）

The decarbonization of energy-intensive continuous process industries remains a major challenge due to the simultaneous dependence on high-temperature thermal energy, continuous operation requirements, and increasing pressure to meet net-zero emission targets. While electrification, hydrogen utilization, renewable energy integration, and carbon capture technologies have been extensively investigated, most existing studies evaluate these solutions under static electricity-grid assumptions. However, the carbon intensity of electricity systems is changing rapidly, fundamentally altering the long-term effectiveness of industrial electrification pathways. This approach may lead to suboptimal investment decisions as the carbon intensity of electricity systems is rapidly decreasing in many countries. This study proposes an integrated techno-economic framework for evaluating industrial decarbonization pathways under a transitioning power grid. An anonymized industrial case representing a large-scale energy-intensive continuous manufacturing facility was analyzed using real operational data, energy performance indicators, and technology deployment scenarios. The assessment includes operational optimization measures, process electrification, photovoltaic-supported electricity supply, hydrogen fuel substitution, oxy-fuel combustion, and carbon capture technologies. For each scenario, carbon emission reduction potential, capital expenditure (CAPEX), operational expenditure (OPEX), and marginal carbon abatement cost were evaluated and compared. The results indicate that electrification-based solutions provide one of the most cost-effective early-stage decarbonization pathways, achieving greenhouse-gas emission reductions ranging from 51.2% under current grid conditions to 58.8% under the 2035 grid decarbonization scenario. Hydrogen scenarios demonstrate substantial technical potential but exhibit considerably higher carbon avoidance costs. Carbon capture technologies become increasingly important in deep-decarbonization stages where residual process emissions cannot be eliminated through fuel switching or electrification alone. Furthermore, the study shows that the effectiveness of electrification increases as the electricity grid becomes progressively decarbonized, highlighting the critical interaction between industrial transition strategies and national energy-system evolution. The findings demonstrate that cost-optimal industrial decarbonization cannot be achieved through a single technology pathway. Instead, a phased strategy combining operational excellence, electrification, renewable energy integration, alternative fuels, and carbon capture provides the most practical route toward net-zero emissions. The proposed framework offers a replicable decision-support methodology for energy-intensive continuous process industries seeking economically viable decarbonization roadmaps. A key finding is that industrial electrification should be assessed under future electricity-grid conditions rather than current grid-carbon-intensity assumptions. Consequently, decarbonization decisions become increasingly dependent on the evolution of the power system supplying industrial electricity.

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