炭素市場政策が駆動するCCS-EOR技術普及の動的メカニズム：進化ゲーム分析と炭素価格閾値研究

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:炭素価格とCCUS普及の相互作用を進化ゲームと交渉理論で統合的にモデル化する手法として参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:CCS-EOR事業の投資判断において、炭素価格水準と回収コストが採算閾値に与える感度を把握できる。

🏛政策担当者:CCUS普及を促す炭素価格・無償割当設計の閾値設定に定量的根拠を提供する。

Large-scale diffusion of carbon capture, storage, and enhanced oil recovery (CCS-EOR) technology requires coordinated decisions by CO2 capture and utilization enterprises, yet their economic incentives are interdependent. This study aims to explain how carbon allowance prices and allocation constraints affect bilateral CO2 pricing and the subsequent adoption of CCS-EOR technology. An alternating-offer bargaining model for determining the CO2 transaction price is coupled with a two-population evolutionary game describing the adoption decisions of capture and utilization enterprises. This integrated approach examines how carbon-market policies shape bargaining outcomes, economic returns, and adoption strategies of both enterprise types. Four techno-economic scenarios calibrated to Chinese CCS-EOR projects are examined using equilibrium analysis, numerical diffusion simulations, a ±10% parameter sensitivity analysis, and stochastic allowance price robustness tests. The critical allowance prices are 64.9 and 110.0 USD/tCO2 for low- and high-capture-cost scenarios, respectively, a difference of 45.1 USD/tCO2 (approximately 69.5% of the low-capture-cost threshold). A ±10% change in operating capture cost shifts these thresholds by ±6.15 and ±10.66 USD/tCO2, whereas the same change in levelized fixed capture cost shifts both thresholds by ±0.34 USD/tCO2. Simulations using a 19 × 19 grid of initial adoption probabilities quantify the basin of attraction of joint adoption; the critical carbon price depends on capture costs, while oil recovery benefits and other techno-economic factors affect the diffusion trajectories below the threshold. Robustness analysis is conducted, considering allowance price fluctuations under a mean-reverting process across different noise intensities (σ = 0 and 6 USD/tCO2). The findings show that carbon pricing influences utilization enterprises indirectly through bargained CO2 transaction prices and that coupling bilateral price negotiations with evolutionary adoption decisions offers a more comprehensive explanation of CCS-EOR technology diffusion and differentiated policy requirements.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/en19215325first seen 2026-11-08 05:06:41 · last seen 2026-11-13 05:18:13