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最終氷期極大期における海洋物理条件が海洋炭素ポンプと大気二酸化炭素に与える影響

Impact of Ocean Physical Conditions on Oceanic Carbon Pumps and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide at the Last Glacial Maximum (原題)

M. Nishida, Hidetaka Kobayashi, Akira Oka

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-01#気候科学Origin: JP
DOI: 10.1029/2026pa005487
原典: https://doi.org/10.1029/2026pa005487

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

最終氷期極大期（LGM）の大気CO2低下（約90ppmv）を気候モデルが再現できない問題に対し、単一の海洋生物地球化学モデルに12種のPMIPモデル由来の物理場を与えて感度を評価した。平均40.3ppmvの低下はSST冷却による溶解度増（−30.1ppmv）と有機物ポンプ強化（−21.6ppmv）で説明され、モデル間ばらつき（±7.8ppmv）はSST差に起因する。海洋物理場の不確実性が氷期CO2再現の鍵であることを示す。

English

Using one offline ocean biogeochemical model driven by physical fields from 12 PMIP models, the authors isolate how ocean physics uncertainty affects glacial atmospheric pCO2. The mean LGM drawdown is 40.3 ppmv, driven by SST-cooling solubility (-30.1 ppmv) and a strengthened organic-matter pump (-21.6 ppmv); inter-model spread (±7.8 ppmv) traces to SST differences. Ocean physical conditions are a key source of uncertainty in reproducing glacial CO2.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

古気候の炭素循環研究であり、SSBJや有報開示、投資家対応といった日本のGX実務に直接の接続は薄い。ただし海洋炭素ポンプの理解はブルーカーボンや海洋ベースの炭素除去（mCDR）議論の基礎として、長期的な炭素会計の科学的土台に関心を持つ読者に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This is paleoclimate carbon-cycle science with no direct bearing on TCFD/ISSB/CSRD disclosure practice. Its value to global GX scholarship is foundational: quantifying ocean carbon pump sensitivity informs the scientific basis for blue-carbon accounting and marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) debates that are beginning to enter climate disclosure and offset frameworks.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:海洋炭素ポンプと物理場の不確実性が氷期CO2再現に与える影響を分離評価する手法は、炭素循環モデリング研究者に有用。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract Ice‐core records show that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations are approximately 90 ppmv lower during glacial periods than during interglacials. However, climate models fail to fully reproduce this reduction. One source of model uncertainty is the representation of ocean physical conditions that influence ocean carbon storage. We assess the impact of uncertainty in ocean physical fields on glacial atmospheric partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 ) using a single offline ocean biogeochemical model with multiple physical fields. These fields are generated from a single Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) forced with the surface boundary conditions derived from 12 Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) models. Keeping the biogeochemical model identical while varying only the physical fields isolates their effect on atmospheric pCO 2 . The mean glacial atmospheric pCO 2 reduction over 12 LGM simulations is 40.3 ppmv. This reduction is driven by increased CO 2 solubility due to sea‐surface temperature (SST) cooling (−30.1 ppmv) and a strengthened organic‐matter pump (−21.6 ppmv). The spread among 12 LGM simulations in atmospheric pCO 2 (±7.8 ppmv) arises from differences in SST among the models, which in turn affect CO 2 solubility (±5.6 ppmv), organic‐matter pump efficiency linked to water‐mass age (±6.6 ppmv), and gas‐exchange pump responses (±9.4 ppmv). Proxy constraints indicate that SST cooling contributed approximately 35 ppmv to the glacial CO 2 drawdown, while the organic‐matter pump may have contributed an additional ∼30 ppmv, albeit with substantial uncertainty. These results show that uncertainty in reproducing glacial atmospheric CO 2 arises from ocean physical conditions, through SST‐driven solubility and organic‐matter pump efficiency.

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