Transformation of the oil industry in the energy transition: A case study of NIS j.s.c. Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia
エネルギー移行における石油産業の変革：セルビア共和国ノヴィサドのNIS j.s.c.を事例として (AI 翻訳)
Andrija Avramović, D. Ivezić, Marija Živković
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
NIS j.s.c. Novi Sadを事例に、LEAPを用いてエネルギー移行シナリオを分析。ベースライン、省エネ、グリーンアジェンダの3シナリオを比較し、グリーンアジェンダでは2050年までに温室効果ガス排出量を73%削減可能と試算。ブルー水素とグリーン水素も併用。制度的支援の重要性を指摘。
English
Using LEAP modeling, this case study of Serbia's NIS oil company analyzes three scenarios: Baseline, Energy Efficiency, and Green Agenda (renewables plus efficiency). The Green Agenda cuts GHG emissions by 73% by 2050, with blue and green hydrogen as additional levers. Institutional support is critical for implementation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は、東欧の石油企業の脱炭素戦略を定量的に評価した事例であり、日本企業の海外拠点におけるエネルギー移行計画策定の参考となる。特に、LEAPを用いた統合モデリング手法は、日本の製油所や石油化学コンビナートの転換計画にも応用可能性がある。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a replicable quantitative framework for oil industry transition that is relevant globally. It shows how integrated energy modeling can inform corporate strategy and policy. The inclusion of hydrogen pathways aligns with global trends toward clean hydrogen deployment.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Quantitative scenario modeling using LEAP can be replicated for other oil and gas companies.
🏢実務担当者:The scenario analysis offers a structured approach for corporate decarbonization planning.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for institutional support and clear policy signals to drive the energy transition in the oil sector.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Integrated energy modeling is increasingly important for planning industrial energy transitions. This study examines Serbia?s oil and gas sector through NIS j.s.c. Novi Sad, analyzing energy flows, material balances, and strategic pathways. An Integrated Energy Model was developed in Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) for 2023 using a bottom-up approach, with projections to 2030 and 2050. Three scenarios were considered: Baseline, Energy Efficiency, and Green Agenda (Renewables combined with Energy Efficiency). The Baseline scenario forecasts total energy use rising by about 4% by 2030 and 2% by 2050. The Energy Efficiency scenario reduces consumption by 6%, while the Green Agenda achieves a 32% decline through full renewable integration and demand-side optimization. Oil, gas, and derivatives remain dominant, though production drops slightly in the Baseline and up to 50% under transition scenarios. Processing grows moderately in the Baseline but falls significantly in alternative paths. Electricity generation expands in the Baseline, while transition scenarios reduce demand and shift toward renewable sources. Greenhouse gas emissions remain almost flat in Baseline but fall by 32% in Energy Efficiency and 73% in the Green Agenda by 2050. Blue hydrogen from the Pancevo refinery is included, while green hydrogen emerges as an additional lever. Findings show that quantified, operational measures, supported institutionally, are essential for oil companies to move beyond declarative strategies and secure an optimal long-term energy mix.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.2298/tsci251113041afirst seen 2026-05-15 20:41:18
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