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中国の湖は依然として炭素源：内在的炭素隔離と排出のバランスからの洞察

China’s lakes remain carbon sources: Insights from the balance between intrinsic carbon sequestration and emissions (原題)

Shilan Wang, Xiaodong Nie, Yi Wang, Ying Zhao, Josep Peñuelas, Alexander Gelfan, Zhengang Wang, Peng Gao, Di Tong, Zhongwu Li

Science Advances📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-19#気候科学Origin: CN
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aed7393
原典: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed7393

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の湖沼における炭素収支を、内在的炭素隔離（自生有機炭素埋没）と排出のバランスから評価。2020年代には湖沼全体で年間0.83テラグラムの炭素源となっており、地域差が大きい。SSP2-4.5シナリオで水生植物優占状態に回復すれば、2070年頃に安定した炭素吸収源に転換可能と予測。炭素吸収ポテンシャルと排出リスクに基づく湖沼の分類・管理フレームワークを提案。

English

This study assesses the carbon balance of China's lakes by isolating autochthonous organic carbon burial as intrinsic sequestration. In the 2020s, lakes were net carbon sources (-0.83 Tg C/yr), with regional variation. Under SSP2-4.5, restoring macrophyte-dominated states could turn them into stable carbon sinks before 2070. A classification-and-management framework based on sink potential and emission risks is proposed.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では湖沼や沿岸域のブルーカーボン生態系が注目されており、本論文の湖沼炭素収支の定量手法や管理フレームワークは、国内の炭素吸収源評価やJブルークレジット制度の設計に示唆を与える。特に、自然生態系の炭素隔離能を正確に評価するための手法は、日本の温室効果ガスインベントリや適応策に応用可能。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to global carbon budget accounting by refining lake carbon balance estimates, relevant to IPCC guidelines and national greenhouse gas inventories. Its classification-and-management framework for lakes based on carbon sink potential and emission risks offers a model for nature-based climate solutions, aligning with global efforts on blue carbon and ecosystem restoration under the Paris Agreement.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a novel method to isolate autochthonous carbon burial and a regional assessment of lake carbon balance, useful for refining global carbon budgets.

🏢実務担当者:Offers a classification-and-management framework that could inform corporate natural capital accounting and nature-based offset strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the potential of lake restoration as a climate mitigation strategy, supporting policy on ecosystem-based adaptation and carbon sink enhancement.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Accurate assessments of lake carbon balance are essential for filling gaps in the global carbon budget and addressing climate change. However, persistent uncertainties arise from an incomplete understanding of intrinsic carbon sequestration and its balance with emission effects. Here, using source fingerprinting techniques, we isolated the autochthonous organic carbon (OC Auto ) burial, which represents the intrinsic carbon sequestration of lakes. We found that OC Auto burial accounted for only 53.23% of total lake carbon emissions in the 2020s, leaving China’s lakes as carbon sources (−0.83 teragrams of carbon per year). Regionally, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateaus have shifted to carbon sinks, whereas lakes in the eastern and northeastern regions remain major carbon sources. Scenario projections indicated that restoring China’s lakes to macrophyte-dominated states under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5 scenario could transition them into stable carbon sinks before OC Auto burial peaks around 2070. To facilitate this transition, we proposed a lake classification-and-management framework based on carbon sink potential and emission risks to guide carbon sequestration and climate mitigation efforts.

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