景気循環・再生可能エネルギー・炭素排出の短期動学：先進国における非対称な産出ギャップの証拠
Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies (原題)
Havva Nesrin TİRYAKİ
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
G7・韓国・豪・スペイン・蘭・スウェーデンの1991〜2023年パネルで、CO2排出の短期決定要因を分析。一人当たり所得成長とエネルギー強度変化が排出増の主因で、再エネ比率上昇は排出を有意に削減。産出ギャップ効果は非対称で、拡張期は排出動学に有意に影響するが、収縮期は必ずしも排出を減らさない。
English
Using a 1991–2023 panel of G7 plus Korea, Australia, Spain, the Netherlands and Sweden, the study identifies short-run drivers of CO2 emissions without long-run equilibrium assumptions. Income growth and energy-intensity changes drive emission growth, while a higher renewable share significantly cuts it. Output-gap effects are asymmetric: expansions matter, contractions do not reliably reduce emissions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はG7として同様の産出ギャップ非対称性に直面し、再エネ拡大と景気後退期の排出管理の両立が政策課題。SSBJ開示とは直接連動しないが、脱炭素政策の短期設計に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Adds short-run, business-cycle-sensitive evidence to the global transition literature, complementing TCFD/ISSB scenario work by showing that emission reductions are not automatic in downturns and that renewable deployment acts as a short-term stabilizer.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:長期均衡を前提としない短期推定量で排出動学を識別する手法が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:景気後退期にも再エネ調達・省エネ投資を継続する合理性を示す。
🏛政策担当者:景気循環に連動した排出管理と再エネ導入の安定化効果を政策設計に反映すべき。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines the short-term dynamics of CO₂ emissions in advanced economies in relation to business cycles, energy intensity, the output gap, and the renewable energy transition. The analysis uses a balanced annual panel dataset covering 1991–2023, including G7 countries, Korea, Australia, Spain, the Netherlands, and Sweden. The study's main objective is to identify short-term emission determinants that are business cycle-sensitive and methodologically consistent, without relying on long-term equilibrium assumptions. Accordingly, because the panel lacks cointegration and shows mixed integration degrees, the analysis used short-term estimators: FE–Driscoll–Kraay, CCE-MG, and AMG. The findings show that per capita income growth and changes in energy intensity are key determinants of short-term emission growth. Increasing the share of renewable energy significantly reduces emissions growth. The output gap effect is asymmetric: expansion periods significantly affect emission dynamics, while contraction periods do not necessarily reduce emissions. The results show that emissions must be managed throughout business cycles and that renewable energy can play a stabilizing role in the short term.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1890564first seen 2026-09-17 04:39:58
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