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成都における農業温室効果ガス排出の時空間進化特性と影響要因

Spatial–Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Chengdu (原題)

Ying Zhou, Shiyu Lin, 泽仁措, Yuan Feng, Xinyun Zhang, Xinyi Wang, Yanlin Wang, Chang Yang

Environments📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-24#エネルギー転換Origin: CN対象セクター: agriculture
DOI: 10.3390/environments13090470
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/environments13090470

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、IPCC係数法とSuper-SBM-Undesiredモデルを用いて、成都の農業温室効果ガス（AGHG）排出量と排出効率を算出し、重心移動分析、カーネル密度推定、空間自己相関、STIRPATモデルにより時空間特性と影響要因を分析した。2007年から2021年にかけて排出量と強度は減少したが、効率は低く、地域差と空間クラスタリングが確認された。作付面積と農薬・肥料使用が排出を増加させ、農業産業構造と都市化率が減少に寄与した。地域の低炭素農業政策への示唆を提供する。

English

This study calculates agricultural GHG (AGHG) emissions and efficiency in Chengdu using the IPCC coefficient method and Super-SBM-Undesired model, analyzing spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors via center-of-gravity shift, kernel density, spatial autocorrelation, and STIRPAT models. From 2007 to 2021, emissions and intensity declined but efficiency remained low, with regional clustering. Sown area and pesticide/fertilizer use increased emissions, while agricultural structure and urbanization reduced them. Offers insights for regional low-carbon agricultural policy.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の農業分野における温室効果ガス削減施策（みどりの食料システム戦略等）や、地域別の排出特性を踏まえた政策立案に示唆を与える。特に、農業構造や都市化の影響を定量的に示す点は、日本の自治体の農業政策にも応用可能。

In the global GX context

Contributes to global scholarship on sub-national agricultural GHG accounting and spatial analysis, relevant to national GHG inventories and climate policy design. The methods (IPCC coefficients, spatial econometrics) are transferable to other regions, supporting evidence-based low-carbon agriculture strategies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a methodological template for sub-national agricultural GHG accounting and spatial analysis.

🏢実務担当者:Offers data-driven insights for agricultural resource allocation and low-carbon farming practices.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights key drivers of agricultural emissions, informing targeted mitigation policies.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Global warming poses a serious environmental challenge worldwide. Agriculture, as a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exerts considerable influence on the atmospheric environment. Chengdu, renowned for its thriving agricultural sector, serves as a key grain production center in China. Reducing agricultural greenhouse gas (AGHG) emissions is essential for mitigating the impact of climate change on Chengdu. Firstly, this paper employed the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coefficient method and the Super-SBM-Undesired model to calculate the AGHG emissions and emission efficiency in Chengdu, respectively. Then, center of gravity shift analysis, kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation theory were used to analyze the spatial–temporal evolution characteristics of AGHG emissions. Finally, this paper conducted an in-depth analysis based on the STIRPAT model to identify key factors affecting AGHG emissions. The results show that: (1) From 2007 to 2021, Chengdu experienced an overall decline in both AGHG emissions and emission intensity, with reductions of 22.32% and 66.20%, respectively. And the AGHG emission efficiency was largely low. (2) AGHG emissions display regional variations and spatial clustering phenomena, characterized by a pattern of “high in the east, low in the west, high outside and low inside”. (3) AGHG emissions are highly increased by the sown area (S) and pesticide and fertilizer utilization (F) and may be reduced by the agricultural industrial structure (V) and the urbanization rate (U). These findings provide valuable scientific insights into the spatial–temporal dynamics of regional agricultural emissions. Furthermore, this study offers practical references for local governments to optimize agricultural resource allocation, formulate tailored low-carbon agricultural policies, and promote sustainable rural development.

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