循環型エネルギー供給チェーンのシステム的視座：イスタンブールの廃棄物発電転換（2020–2024）における多様化、供給リスク低減、自己制限的回復経路
Systems Perspectives on Circular Energy Supply Chains: Diversification, Supply-Risk Reduction, and Self-Limiting Recovery Paths in Istanbul’s Waste-to-Energy Transition (2020–2024) (原題)
Fabian Behrendt, Cumhur Dülger
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
イスタンブールの廃棄物発電を循環型エネルギー供給チェーンとして捉え、2020–2024年のİSTAÇ施設データをポートフォリオ分解と集中度指標（HHI、有効源泉数、Theil指数）で分析。発電量は457GWhから1332GWhへ増加し、HHIは1.00から0.47へ低下、有効源泉数は1.0から2.1に上昇した。廃棄物発電とバイオメタン化が増分の73%を占め、埋立ガス回収は690–698GWhで頭打ちとなった。資源基盤が物理的減衰と政策による補充減少で同時に枯渇する「自己制限的回復経路」概念を提示し、埋立ガスを過渡的橋渡し技術と位置づける。
English
Treating municipal waste as a circular energy supply chain, this study analyzes Istanbul's 2020–2024 waste-to-energy transition using portfolio decomposition and concentration indices (HHI, effective source count, Theil index) on İSTAÇ facility data. Generation rose from 457 to 1332 GWh, HHI fell from 1.00 to 0.47, and effective source count rose from 1.0 to 2.1; energy-from-waste and biomethanization drove 73% of the increase while landfill-gas recovery plateaued at 690–698 GWh. It introduces the 'self-limiting recovery path' concept, where a technology's resource base is depleted by both physical decay and policy-mediated reduced replenishment, framing landfill gas as a transitional bridge technology.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では廃棄物発電・バイオガス化の長期計画や地域循環共生圏の議論と接続しうる。ただしSSBJ・有報・TCFD開示や炭素会計の論点は含まず、開示対応への直接的な示唆は限定的。
In the global GX context
Adds a supply-chain diversification lens to waste-to-energy transitions, relevant to circular-economy and just-transition debates. However, it does not engage TCFD/ISSB/CSRD disclosure frameworks or carbon accounting, so its contribution to global disclosure scholarship is indirect.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:循環型エネルギー供給チェーンの集中度指標と自己制限的経路という分析枠組みを、他都市の廃棄物発電比較研究へ応用できる。
🏢実務担当者:廃棄物発電・埋立ガス事業のポートフォリオ多様化と、埋立ガスを橋渡し技術と見なす長期計画の参考になる。
🏛政策担当者:埋立ガス回収の補充減少を政策がどう設計するか、廃棄物発電への移行をどう誘導するかの示唆を含む。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Municipal waste management is conceptualized as a circular energy supply chain in which waste flows through parallel recovery pathways. This study examines Istanbul’s waste-to-energy transition between 2020 and 2024 using portfolio decomposition, concentration indices (Herfindahl–Hirschman index, effective source count, Theil index), and a qualitative stock–flow interpretation of İSTAÇ facility-level data. Electricity generation rose from 457 GWh in 2020 to 1332 GWh in 2024; the Herfindahl–Hirschman index fell from 1.00 to 0.47, and the effective source count rose from 1.0 to 2.1. Energy-from-waste and biomethanization accounted for 73% of the increase, while landfill-gas recovery plateaued at 690–698 GWh, contributing the remaining 27%. The study introduces the concept of a self-limiting recovery path: a technology whose resource base is depleted jointly by physical decay and a policy-mediated reduction in its replenishment. Plant-level evidence at the largely closed Odayeri site is consistent with this mechanism, though it cannot rule out ordinary gas decay kinetics or a capacity ceiling as alternatives; the reading is offered as plausible rather than demonstrated. Unlike conventional lock-in pathways, a self-limiting pathway generates self-eroding feedback, suggesting landfill gas is best treated as a transitional bridge technology. The study contributes to path-dependency theory and circular energy supply-chain research.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14091072first seen 2026-09-20 04:35:56
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