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プラハにおける競合する炭素価格視点の下での都市土壌炭素の経済的価値

The economic value of urban soil carbon under competing carbon pricing perspectives in Prague (原題)

Petr Procházka, Jana Soukupová, Jaroslav Červený, Hynek Roubík, Giri Prasad Kandel

Scientific Reports📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-16#炭素価格Origin: EU
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-74764-1
原典: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-74764-1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

プラハ都市圏の表層0〜30cmの土壌有機炭素貯留量を415万トン（90%予測区間168〜890万トン）と推定し、その経済価値を炭素価格制度別に算出した研究。自主クレジット市場で中央値0.9億ユーロ、EU-ETSで10.2億ユーロ、炭素の社会的費用（SCC）で18.2億ユーロとなる。価値の不確実性の主要因は制度により異なり、EU-ETSでは土壌炭素量の不確実性が最大96.7%、SCCでは炭素価格の不確実性が52.9%以上を占める。

English

This study quantifies urban soil organic carbon in the Prague functional urban area (4.15 Mt C, 90% PI 1.68–8.90 Mt) and values it across carbon pricing regimes. Median value ranges from €0.09bn (voluntary market) to €1.02bn (EU ETS) and €1.82bn (social cost of carbon), with expected values of €2.58–5.34bn under SCC. The dominant uncertainty source shifts by regime: soil stock uncertainty (up to 96.7%) under EU ETS versus carbon price uncertainty (≥52.9%) under SCC.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では炭素価格（GXリーグ・炭素賦課金）議論が進む中、土壌・自然資本の経済評価に不確実性を明示的に組み込む手法は、SSBJの自然資本・生物多様性開示を検討する企業・自治体にとって参考になる。

In the global GX context

As ISSB/CSRD push nature and biodiversity disclosure, this paper models how to propagate uncertainty in ecosystem-service valuation across carbon pricing regimes—relevant to how natural capital values are reported and compared under market-based versus social-cost frameworks.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:炭素価格制度間で評価額と不確実性の主要因がどう変わるかを示す、自然資本評価の方法論的参照点となる。

🏢実務担当者:自然資本・土壌炭素を開示する際、単一の評価額ではなく不確実性レンジと価格前提を併記する必要性を示唆する。

🏛政策担当者:都市計画や気候政策で土壌炭素価値を用いる際、価格制度の選択が測定投資の優先順位を左右する点に留意すべき。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract Urban soil carbon is increasingly incorporated into ecosystem service and climate policy assessments, yet its economic value is commonly reported without an explicit uncertainty range. In this paper, we quantify this uncertainty in urban soil valuation for the Prague Functional Urban Area (rectangular study area centred on Prague) and examine how its sources vary across carbon pricing regimes. The soil organic carbon stock of the upper 0 to 30 cm layer is estimated at 4.15 million tonnes of carbon, with a 90% prediction interval of 1.68 to 8.90 million tonnes. Its estimated median economic value ranges from 0.09 billion EUR under the voluntary carbon market regime to 1.02 billion EUR under the European Union Emissions Trading System and 1.82 billion EUR under the social cost of carbon. Because the value distributions are right-skewed, the expected values, which are the relevant measure for risk-neutral decisions, are higher, at 2.58 to 5.34 billion EUR under two alternative estimates of the social cost of carbon. The source of valuation uncertainty varies markedly across regimes. Soil carbon stock uncertainty accounts for up to 96.7% of the variance under the European Union Emissions Trading System, whereas carbon price uncertainty accounts for at least 52.9% under the social cost of carbon (67.4% under a meta-analytic synthesis). These results suggest that the priority for reducing valuation uncertainty depends on the carbon pricing perspective: improved soil measurements are most informative under market-based pricing, whereas improved carbon damage and price estimates become more important under a social cost of carbon framework. Explicit uncertainty propagation can therefore improve the interpretation and use of urban soil carbon valuations in climate and land-use planning.

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