Complex trade-offs across co-designed narratives of Australian land-system futures
オーストラリアの土地利用システムの未来に関する共同設計されたナラティブにわたる複雑なトレードオフ (AI 翻訳)
Pan X, Wang JW, Hadjikakou M, Archibald C, Wynn K, Roche R, Williams M, Sanson J, Jaffe P, Bryan B
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、オーストラリアの土地利用システムについて、4つの共同設計されたAg2050シナリオを国家規模の最適化モデルに組み込み、食料生産、経済、気候緩和、生物多様性の間のトレードオフを定量的に評価した。Landscape Stewardshipシナリオは最大の生物多様性向上と唯一の正味炭素吸収源を達成する一方、Regional Ag Capitalsは食料生産と経済収益を最大化するが排出量はネットゼロ軌道を超える。
English
This paper translates four co-designed Ag2050 narratives into a national-scale land-system optimization model for Australia, quantifying trade-offs between food production, economic returns, climate mitigation, and biodiversity. The Landscape Stewardship scenario achieves the largest biodiversity gain and the only net carbon sink, while Regional Ag Capitals maximizes food output and returns but holds emissions above net-zero.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、国土利用と気候・生物多様性の統合的評価が重要だが、本論文はオーストラリアを対象としており、日本の文脈への直接応用は限定的。ただし、ステークホルダー協働型シナリオとモデリングの手法は、日本の地域土地利用計画や農林水産業の脱炭素化に示唆を与える可能性がある。
In the global GX context
This paper presents a novel framework for evaluating stakeholder-defined land-use futures under multiple objectives, directly relevant to global climate and biodiversity targets. It demonstrates how co-designed narratives can be integrated with quantitative optimization, offering a transferable approach for national-scale land system planning that balances competing sustainability goals.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Land system modelers and sustainability scientists can learn from the co-design-to-optimization pipeline and the explicit treatment of trade-offs among food, climate, and biodiversity.
🏢実務担当者:Agricultural and land-use planners may use the scenario outcomes to inform stakeholder discussions on regional development priorities and carbon mitigation strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can leverage the trade-off analysis to design integrated land-use policies that align with climate and biodiversity commitments, though Australian-specific results require adaptation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Reconciling food production, economic prosperity, climate mitigation and biodiversity recovery is a defining challenge for land systems, yet narratives and integrated models are usually developed separately, limiting evaluation of stakeholder-defined futures. Here we translate four co-designed Ag2050 futures into a national-scale land-system optimisation model for Australia. Their desirability depends on how competing objectives are weighed. Landscape Stewardship delivers the largest biodiversity gain (to 97.9 Mha) and the only net carbon sink (−73.7 Mt CO₂e yr⁻¹) by reallocating 13.9 Mha to environmental and multifunctional uses, while achieving returns of AU$40.7 billion yr⁻¹. Regional Ag Capitals maximises food output (240.4 Mt yr⁻¹) and returns (AU$43.4 billion yr⁻¹) but holds net emissions well above a net-zero trajectory. By translating co-designed narratives into a shared framework, our approach makes trade-offs explicit, supports iterative refinement of stakeholder-defined futures, and offers a transferable basis for evaluating national land-use pathways against global climate, biodiversity and food-security goals.</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10431053/v1first seen 2026-07-25 04:36:07
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