Post-Expansion Carbon Price Forecasting in China’s Emissions Trading Scheme Based on VMD–SVR Model
中国排出量取引制度におけるVMD-SVRモデルに基づく拡大後炭素価格予測 (AI 翻訳)
Yuehan Fang, Yan Li, Lei Chang, Jianhe Wang, Chuanyu Zhou
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国の排出量取引制度（ETS）に鉄鋼・電解アルミニウム部門が追加されるシナリオを想定し、VMD-SVRモデルで炭素価格を予測。市場拡大は短期的な価格上昇を招くが変動性を低減し、異なる割当方法（無償割当とベンチマーク）が異なる影響を与えることを示した。
English
This study forecasts carbon prices under scenarios of expanding China's ETS to cover steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors using a VMD-SVR model. Results show market expansion causes short-term price increases but reduces volatility, with different quota allocation methods yielding distinct outcomes.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国ETSの拡大は世界最大の炭素市場の動向を示すもので、日本企業の中国事業における炭素コスト見積もりや、日本のGX政策との比較検討に有用。特に、セクター別割当方法の影響は日本の排出量取引制度設計にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on carbon price dynamics under ETS expansion, relevant for global carbon pricing literature and for countries like Japan considering sectoral coverage expansion. The comparison of allocation methods offers insights for ETS design worldwide.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for understanding price determinants in expanding ETS and applying VMD-SVR for carbon price forecasting.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can use the insights to anticipate carbon cost impacts when China's ETS covers new sectors.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence on how quota allocation methods affect price stability and abatement incentives, informing ETS design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The planned inclusion of the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors into China’s Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) market—initially limited to thermal power since 2021—will expand its coverage to approximately 70% of national carbon emissions, significantly influencing carbon pricing. This study employs a Variational Mode Decomposition–Support Vector Regression (VMD-SVR) model to forecast carbon price fluctuations under three post-expansion scenarios. The results indicate that, in addition to quota allocations, factors such as sectoral emission scales, the CSI 300 Power Index, and the Shanghai Energy Price Index substantially affect price trends. While market expansion induces a short-term price increase, it also stabilizes prices by reducing volatility. Furthermore, different quota allocation methods yield distinct outcomes: equal allocation facilitates a smoother market transition, whereas benchmarking provides stronger incentives for emissions reductions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3390/su18042028first seen 2026-05-05 22:38:46
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