土地利用・エネルギー・農業・森林システムの国家統合モデルに向けて（TIM-LEAF v1.0）

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:エネルギー・土地利用統合モデリングと気候応答結合の手法設計に関心のある研究者に有用。

🏢実務担当者:森林・バイオエネルギー・農業由来排出を統合的に把握したい開示担当者に、吸収源会計の枠組みを示す。

🏛政策担当者:国別炭素予算下でのAFOLUとエネルギー政策の整合を検討する政策当局に方法論的示唆を与える。

Abstract. Achieving ambitious climate change mitigation necessitates integrated approaches across energy, agriculture, land use, and forestry (AFOLU) systems. Yet, national modelling typically treats these sectors in isolation and focuses on emissions rather than climate impacts. This paper introduces TIM-LEAF, a national integrated modelling framework for Ireland that harmonises energy, agriculture and forestry systems within a consistent modelling structure, combining cost-optimisation of the energy system with simulation of AFOLU dynamics and temperature response. TIM-LEAF extends the TIMES-Ireland Model, a well-established national energy systems model, by explicitly incorporating land resource allocation, agricultural production, forestry dynamics, and inventory-aligned greenhouse gas accounting for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide across energy and AFOLU sectors. Land is treated as a finite resource, endogenously allocated to competing uses like bioenergy crops and forestry—subject to capacity constraints and exogenous conversion rates between land types. Agricultural production levels are based on national projections, and the remaining land is allocated endogenously between energy crops and forestry within the optimisation framework. A detailed forest module captures growth, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply chains, accounting for carbon saturation effects. This enables analysis of interactions between agricultural production, forest carbon sinks, bioenergy supply and energy system transformation under national carbon budgets. TIM-LEAF is coupled to the FaIR v2.1.3 simple climate model, enabling the evaluation of multi-gas mitigation impacts on national temperature and the role of individual gases, particularly methane, in shaping peak warming and overshoot dynamics. This paper thus demonstrates the capabilities of TIM-LEAF and sectoral dynamics in high level scenarios. The paper makes four contributions: it presents Ireland's first inventory-aligned national model for these interconnected systems; introduces forest carbon dynamics within a TIMES-based optimisation model; demonstrates a method for coupling national multi-gas emissions pathways to a simple climate model to quantify temperature responses; and offers a transferable methodological template for national-scale energy-land system integration.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5289first seen 2026-10-30 04:46:19 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:35:12