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二層ゲームの視点から見る国際海運の脱炭素化：IMOネットゼロ枠組みとより持続可能な合意空間の条件

International Shipping Decarbonization Through a Two-Level Game Lens: The IMO Net-Zero Framework and Conditions for a More Durable Agreement Space (原題)

Ziluo Fu, Wei Shen

Sustainability📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-20#政策Origin: CN経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: shipping
DOI: 10.3390/su18168544
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168544

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、IMOのネットゼロ枠組み（NZF）を二層ゲーム理論で分析し、2025年4月の草案回覧承認がその後の期限内採択に至らなかった理由を解明する。国内・地域・セクターの制約（EUの規制信頼性、米国の主権・コスト懸念、新興国の貿易曝露、小島嶼国の野心、エネルギー輸出国の燃料供給など）が合意空間の持続可能性を損なうと論じる。より耐久性のある合意には、IMO中心の規制、支援措置、野心の下限と柔軟なコンプライアンス、段階的実施が必要と提言する。

English

This paper analyzes the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) through a two-level game lens, explaining why approval for circulation in April 2025 did not lead to timely adoption. It identifies domestic, regional, and sectoral constraints—such as EU regulatory credibility, US sovereignty and cost concerns, trade exposure for emerging economies, ambition for SIDS, and fuel supply for exporters—that undermine the durability of the agreement space. A more durable deal would require an IMO-centered core, enabling support, an ambition floor with compliance flexibility, and sequenced implementation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本は世界有数の海運国であり、IMO規制の動向は日本郵船や商船三井などの海運企業、さらには自動車・鉄鋼など輸出産業のサプライチェーンに直結する。本分析は、日本が国際交渉で主張すべき条件（燃料供給、競争力、法的確実性）を整理する上で示唆に富む。

In the global GX context

As a major shipping nation, Japan's maritime and export industries are directly affected by IMO regulations. This analysis provides a framework for understanding the political economy of international shipping decarbonization, relevant for global policymakers and stakeholders navigating the transition to net-zero shipping.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a novel two-level game framework for analyzing international climate negotiations, applicable to other sectors.

🏢実務担当者:Helps shipping companies and exporters anticipate regulatory timelines and compliance costs.

🏛政策担当者:Offers insights into building durable international agreements, relevant for IMO delegates and national regulators.

📄 Abstract（原文）

International shipping decarbonization has expanded beyond technical and operational regulation to include contested market-based bargaining. The proposed International Maritime Organization (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF) combines a marine fuel standard with an economic compliance mechanism. Drawing on IMO submissions, voting records, official statements, and domestic and sectoral materials, this two-level game analysis examines why support sufficient to approve the draft for circulation in April 2025 did not translate into timely adoption later that year. The evidence suggests that the initial agreement space was not durable enough to support adoption on the planned timetable. At Level I, bargaining involved three linked dimensions: rule-making authority, responsibility allocation, and transition pathway design. At Level II, domestic, regional, and sectoral constraints included regulatory credibility and investment signals for the European Union; sovereignty and cost concerns for the United States; trade exposure and disproportionate impacts for trade-exposed emerging economies; ambition and revenue-supported transition for small island developing States; and fuel availability, fleet competitiveness, and legal certainty for energy exporters and open registries. A coalition sufficient at one procedural stage may therefore not remain sufficient at the next. A more durable agreement space would likely require an IMO-centered regulatory core, targeted enabling support, an ambition floor with compliance flexibility, and sequenced implementation and review.

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