Analysis of the impact and ambition of the new NDCs for 2035: Paris climate goal is further out of reach
2035年向け新NDCの影響と野心度の分析：パリ気候目標はさらに遠のく (AI 翻訳)
Elzen Md, Hooijschuur E, Dafnomilis I, Beusen A, Dekker M, Kuramochi T, Solf S, Tagomori IS, Vuuren Dv
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2025年に約130カ国が提出した2035年向け気候計画（NDC）を分析。無条件NDCで2035年の排出量が2019年比約7%削減されるが、パリ協定の1.5℃目標には不十分。G20では豪州、EU、日本、英国がネットゼロ目標と整合したNDCを設定。未ピーク国は急速な脱炭素化を求められる。
English
This study evaluates 2035 NDCs submitted by ~130 countries in 2025. Full implementation would cut 2035 GHG emissions by ~7-11% from 2019 levels, still insufficient for below-2°C/1.5°C pathways. Among G20, Australia, EU, Japan, UK have NDCs aligned with net-zero, while others lag. Post-2035 decarbonization urgency is highlighted for non-peaking economies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本がG20の中でネットゼロと整合したNDCを設定した国として評価されている点は、日本のGX政策（GX実行計画、GXリーグなど）の国際的な位置づけを確認するうえで重要。ただし、日本を含む多くのG20諸国が衡平性に基づく分担目標を満たしていないことも示されており、今後の政策強化の必要性を示唆。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a timely global benchmark for 2035 NDC ambition, relevant to the Paris Agreement's ratchet mechanism and upcoming COP discussions. It identifies which G20 economies (including Japan) have credible net-zero alignment, offering a framework for assessing national ambition gaps that can inform ISSB/TCFD-aligned transition plan disclosures.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive, country-level assessment of 2035 NDC ambition and net-zero alignment, useful for comparing national climate policy trajectories.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights which G20 economies have credible near-term targets, informing corporate transition risk assessments and net-zero roadmaps.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence on the ambition gap for 2035 NDCs and the urgency for post-2035 decarbonization, directly relevant to updating national climate plans.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>In 2025, almost 130 countries submitted new national climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), outlining mitigation targets for 2035. This study evaluates their impact on emissions for all countries and assesses their ambition levels, with a main focus on the G20 economies. Full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs would reduce projected median global greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 by approximately 7% and 11% respectively, compared to 2019 levels—still falling short of the reductions needed to align with below 2°C and 1.5°C pathways. Among the G20, four economies—Australia, the EU, Japan, and the United Kingdom—have set new NDC targets on a linear path to net-zero emissions. In contrast, Brazil, Canada, the Russian Federation, and South Africa have NDCs misaligned with their net-zero targets. For the remaining G20 economies that have yet to peak—China, Indonesia, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, and Türkiye—transitioning to net-zero emissions must occur within 15 to 35 years, a timeline significantly shorter than the 37 to over 60 years required by those that have already peaked, underscoring the urgency for rapid decarbonization after 2035. Lastly, the majority of G20 economies do not meet 2035 reduction targets derived from Paris-aligned equity-based effort-sharing approaches.</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9464868/v1first seen 2026-05-22 04:20:17 · last seen 2026-05-27 04:20:59
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