Does China’s 2035 NDC reshape natural gas demand pathways?

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides quantitative pathways for natural gas demand under varying policy stringency, useful for energy system modeling.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the risk of stranded gas assets if decarbonization accelerates; relevant for utility and gas infrastructure planning.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that coordinated supply-demand policies achieve deeper emission cuts than supply-side measures alone.

China’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions announced in 2025 strengthen mid-term emission-reduction requirements while maintaining the 2030 peaking objective and the long-term carbon-neutrality target for 2060. Given its system support role and sensitivity to methane emissions, natural gas demand may be reshaped under the new climate constraints. This study develops an integrated LEAP-MESSAGE framework to assess China’s natural gas demand pathways over 2021–2060, in which LEAP is used to project end-use energy demand and MESSAGE is used to optimize the least-cost energy supply system. Four scenarios are compared: business as usual (BAU), a baseline pathway under the existing 3060 targets (NDC3060), a supply-side adjustment pathway under strengthened 2035 constraints (NDC3560-S), and a coordinated supply–demand adjustment pathway (NDC3560-SD). In the early stage of non-fossil energy expansion, natural gas partly serves as a flexible balancing and peaking resource for variable renewable energy integration; however, under stronger 2035 climate constraints, this transitional role is progressively weakened as non-fossil deployment and end-use substitution accelerate. The results show that the existing 3060 pathway responds weakly to the 2035 climate target, with the non-fossil energy share reaching approximately 27% by 2035 and greenhouse gas reductions failing to meet the required 7–10% decline. The natural gas demand outcomes strongly depend on the policy implementation pathway. Under supply-side-oriented adjustment, peak timing remains broadly unchanged and peak demand declines by approximately 6.5%, whereas coordinated supply–demand adjustment induces an earlier peak around 2030 and reduces peak demand by approximately 23%. Sectoral analysis further shows that demand reductions are concentrated in the power sector under supply-side adjustment but extend to industry, buildings, and transport under coordinated adjustment.

• openalex https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Does_China_s_2035_NDC_reshape_natural_gas_demand_pathways_/32536176first seen 2026-06-21 05:00:44