GETP v1.0：世界エネルギー転換ペースデータベース - 214か国における電力技術の実現された上昇・下降率、1985-2025年

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🔬研究者:エネルギー転換の非対称性（成長と衰退）を実証分析するための調和化データセットとして活用可能。

🏢実務担当者:自社の電源構成や投資計画を国際的な移行ペースと比較するためのベンチマークとして利用可能。

🏛政策担当者:エネルギー政策の進捗評価や、脱炭素目標の実現可能性を国際比較で検証するための基礎資料。

GETP v1.0 is a harmonised database of realised ascent and descent rates for electricity technologies in 214 countries over 1985–2025. WHAT IT DOES DIFFERENTLY Research on the pace of energy transitions has developed almost entirely on the growth side. How fast solar and wind can expand has been characterised in detail; how fast coal, oil and gas actually contract has not been measured with the same instrument, on the same sample, at the same time. GETP applies a single, model-agnostic diagnostic engine symmetrically to expanding and contracting trajectories, so that the two halves of a transition can be compared on like terms. CONTENTS - 166,388-observation harmonised panel: 214 countries × 14 technologies and aggregates × two measurement bases (share of national generation, and generation per person) × 1985–2025 - 5,680 diagnosed country–technology–basis series with 110 variables each - Country-level summary (716 variables) and a 58-variable core subset - World reference series and world-level diagnostics - Full codebook (824 entries), automated validation report, Excel bundle - Complete build and analysis code ASCENT METRICS Takeoff year (three thresholds), first inflection point, benchmark growth rate, maximum growth rate with bootstrap confidence interval, growth pulses, post-inflection cruising speed, best sustained 3/5/10-year rates, threshold-crossing times, and a logistic reference fit. DESCENT METRICS (the novel component) Peak year with 95% bootstrap confidence interval and peak probability, descent onset, descent inflection, benchmark decline rate, maximum decline rate with confidence interval, descent cruising speed, rebound episodes, decline half-life, phase-out year, and projected phase-out at each country's own demonstrated speed. Every descent metric is also computed on a post-2000 window, because a technology's all-time peak often predates the policy-relevant turning point. DERIVED COUNTRY INDICATORS Ascent–descent asymmetry indices, displacement ratios (full record and last decade), and a five-level transition stage classification. VALIDATION Seven automated internal consistency checks pass. Externally, the ascent engine reproduces published estimates from an independent research group: restricted to grids above 10 TWh, GETP gives a median benchmark growth rate of 0.706 pp/yr for wind against a published 0.656 (IQR 0.372–1.460), and 0.797 for solar against a published 0.713 (IQR 0.292–1.922). Both fall inside the published interquartile ranges. Face-validity checks recover documented national histories (UK coal, US coal, German nuclear, Chinese coal, Danish fossil, Vietnamese solar). REPRODUCIBILITY Derived entirely from two openly licensed Our World in Data files. No proprietary input. The whole database regenerates bit-identically from a clean extract with a single command in roughly 20 seconds. SHA-256 hashes of the source files are recorded at build time. USAGE NOTES Filter on the `active` flag before computing any distributional statistic: of 2,688 diagnosed share-basis series, only 1,676 are active, and the remainder are technologies that never existed in that country. Note also that fossil and low-carbon shares sum to 100 by construction, so ratios between them on the share basis are mechanically 1 - use the per-capita basis for questions about displacement. Projected phase-out years are extrapolations of demonstrated behaviour, not forecasts.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/22555096first seen 2026-09-07 04:11:39 · last seen 2026-09-15 04:12:19