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Exploring agri-projects' risks and opportunities in a changing climate: a case of Bloemfontein, Free State Province, South Africa

気候変動下における農業プロジェクトのリスクと機会の探求：南アフリカ自由州ブルームフォンテーンの事例 (AI 翻訳)

Human Sciences Research Council

Human Science Research Council SA📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-05-22#気候リスク対象セクター: agriculture
DOI: 10.14749/32361729
原典: https://doi.org/10.14749/32361729

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、南アフリカ自由州ブルームフォンテーンを対象に、気候変動が農業プロジェクトに与えるリスクと機会を評価した。SPIとRDIの干ばつ指標を用いたトレンド分析では、ほとんどの季節で統計的に有意な傾向は見られず、春季のみ有意な減少傾向が確認された。結果は、防御的戦略や多角化戦略、干ばつ耐性品種の生産などの適応機会を示唆している。

English

This study assesses the risks and opportunities of climate change for agri-projects in Bloemfontein, South Africa, using SPI and RDI drought indicators. Trend analysis revealed no significant trends except in spring, suggesting businesses can adopt defensive or diversification strategies, and farmers can explore drought-resistant cultivars.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本農業は南アフリカと気候条件が異なるが、気候変動適応策としての干ばつ指標活用や多角化戦略は国内でも参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a localized case study on climate risk and adaptation in agriculture, relevant to global discussions on climate-resilient food systems and diversification strategies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a method for drought risk assessment using SPI and RDI, applicable to other agricultural regions.

🏢実務担当者:Insights on defensive and diversification strategies for agri-businesses facing climate variability.

🏛政策担当者:Informs adaptation policy and support for drought-resistant crop development.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Innovation is one of the most fundamental processes that underpins the economic growth and serves as an economic basis for developing solutions to socio-economic and environmental challenges such as climate change. Climate change has become one of the most threatening natural processes in the world, with major impacts in the economic development, this can also provide opportunities for new ventures. The aim of this study was to assess the climate change variability status in the study area to maintain businesses' continuity, inform policy making for climate change risks adaptation and mitigation and set an avenue for climate change innovations entrepreneurship in the study area. Two drought indicators, Standardised Precipitation (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Indices (RDI) were used in quantifying drought events computed from monthly precipitation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature. Three temporal scales, seasonal (3) and annual (12) were selected for analysis for trend patterns using a Mann Kendall's test. The trend analysis showed neither decreasing nor increasing statistically significant trends in all the selected scales expect in spring (Aug-Oct). This condition could imply that businesses can play defensive and diversification strategies to stay in the market. The results also present opportunities such as drought -resistant cultivars production for farmers.

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