インドネシア・ASEAN・OECD諸国における電力転換 1985–2024年：傾向・ギャップ・政策含意
Electricity transition in Indonesia, ASEAN, and OECD nations, 1985–2024: Trends, gaps, and policy implications (原題)
Eka Sudarmaji, Muhammad Rubiul Yatim, Herlan, Arya Jati Kusuma Al-Ansori
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は1985〜2024年の発電データを比較し、豊富な水力・太陽光・地熱資源を持つインドネシアの再エネ転換がなぜASEAN近隣国やOECD諸国に比べ停滞しているかを分析する。2024年時点で再エネ比率はOECDが40%超、ASEAN平均28.3%に対しインドネシアは16%未満にとどまり、石炭が55%超を占め続ける。石炭価格上限による再エネの競争力喪失、投資動員の弱さ、規制の断片化という三つの構造要因を特定し、石炭縮小と再エネ加速を組み合わせれば2040年までに40〜50%到達可能と示す。
English
This study compares electricity generation data from 1985–2024 to explain why Indonesia's renewable transition lags ASEAN peers and OECD nations despite abundant hydro, solar, and geothermal resources. By 2024, renewables reached over 40% in OECD countries and 28.3% in ASEAN, but stayed below 16% in Indonesia, where coal still exceeds 55% of generation. The authors identify three structural barriers—fossil fuel lock-in reinforced by a domestic coal price cap, weak investment mobilization, and fragmented regulation—and show that a coal phase-down plus renewable acceleration could lift Indonesia's renewable share to 40–50% by 2040.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとっては、ASEAN最大の石炭依存国であるインドネシアの移行停滞要因を理解する材料となる。同国での再エネ事業・送電網・地域電力取引への投資判断や、日系製造業の調達先カーボン管理を検討する際の政策リスク評価に資する。
In the global GX context
The paper adds empirical weight to the global debate on transition finance and coal phase-down in middle-income economies, complementing TCFD/ISSB-aligned disclosure by quantifying the policy and investment gaps that drive sovereign and corporate transition risk. It offers a comparative benchmark for ASEAN power-sector decarbonization that is relevant to international investors and development finance institutions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:中所得・石炭依存国の電力転換を比較定量する枠組みと、政策・投資・規制の三要因仮説を提供する。
🏢実務担当者:インドネシアでの再エネ調達・送電網アクセス・地域電力取引に関わる投資リスクと機会を評価する基礎になる。
🏛政策担当者:化石燃料補助金の再配分、許認可簡素化、系統接続保証、ASEAN電力取引深化という政策パッケージの根拠を提示する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines why Indonesia's renewable energy transition has stalled relative to its ASEAN neighbors and OECD nations, despite the country holding substantial hydro, solar, and geothermal resources. Using comparative quantitative analysis of electricity generation data from 1985 to 2024, we track renewable energy integration trends across three groups: Indonesia, the ASEAN regional average, and OECD countries. The analysis combines descriptive statistics, trend assessment, and scenario-based modeling to project trajectories through 2040. Results reveal a persistent transition gap: OECD countries reached renewable shares above 40% by 2024, ASEAN averaged 28.3%, and Indonesia remained below 16%—even as coal held more than 55% of its generation mix throughout the study period. Three structural factors are consistently associated with this gap: fossil fuel infrastructure lock-in reinforced by a domestic coal price cap that renders renewables artificially uncompetitive, weak investment mobilization relative to OECD-style feed-in tariffs and carbon pricing mechanisms, and fragmented regulatory frameworks that systematically inflate project risk. Scenario modeling shows that business-as-usual sustains high emissions, while a coal phase-down combined with renewable acceleration could push the renewable share to 40–50% by 2040. Closing this gap requires coordinated reform: redirecting fossil fuel subsidies to renewables, streamlining licensing, guaranteeing grid access, and deepening ASEAN regional power trading. The findings carry direct relevance for other middle-income, coal-dependent countries managing the tension between energy transition and economic growth.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.18686/cest869first seen 2026-10-10 05:01:31
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