Decarbonising a transcontinental green shipping corridor under trade growth: a system dynamics analysis
貿易成長下における大陸横断グリーン海運回廊の脱炭素化：システムダイナミクス分析 (AI 翻訳)
M. Hero, P. Vidmar, Patrick Vlačič, Marko Perkovič
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、上海・ジェベルアリ・コペルを結ぶ大陸横断グリーン海運回廊を対象に、システムダイナミクス（SD）モデルを構築し、港湾運営、航行排出、代替燃料生産、バンカリングインフラ、再生可能エネルギー導入を統合的に評価した。結果、成長と脱炭素化のパラドックスが顕在化し、23の対策と代替燃料86%導入でも2050年ネットゼロは達成困難。航行段階が排出削減の96%を占め、バンカリング段階が重要な役割を果たす。
English
This study develops a System Dynamics (SD) framework to evaluate a transcontinental green shipping corridor connecting Shanghai, Jebel Ali, and Koper, integrating port operations, voyage emissions, alternative fuel production, bunkering infrastructure, and renewable energy. Results reveal a growth-decarbonization paradox: even with 23 mitigation measures and ~86% alternative fuel adoption, net-zero by 2050 is not achieved under 2.2% annual traffic growth. Voyage phases account for 96% of emission reductions, with bunkering as a critical enabling subsystem.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は海運大国であり、国際海運の脱炭素化は国策として重要。本モデルは日本企業の代替燃料戦略や港湾インフラ投資に示唆を与え、SSBJやTCFD開示におけるScope 3排出量の将来シナリオ分析にも応用可能。
In the global GX context
This study contributes to global maritime decarbonization scholarship by providing a transferable SD framework for corridor-scale analysis. It highlights the need for integrated transport-energy planning, relevant for ISSB-aligned disclosure and transition finance in shipping.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a system dynamics framework for analyzing green shipping corridors, useful for further research on integrated transport-energy systems.
🏢実務担当者:Informs shipping companies and port operators about the critical role of bunkering infrastructure and the limits of current mitigation measures.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for policy support for infrastructure readiness and alternative fuel adoption to meet net-zero targets in maritime transport.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Decarbonising maritime transport is becoming increasingly challenging amid sustained global trade growth. This study develops a System Dynamics (SD) framework to evaluate a transcontinental green shipping corridor connecting Shanghai, Jebel Ali, and Koper. The model integrates five interconnected stages, including port operations, voyage emissions, alternative fuel production, bunkering infrastructure, and renewable energy deployment. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are modelled using a stock–flow approach incorporating alternative fuels (ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen), energy-efficiency technologies, infrastructure constraints, and feedback-driven adoption mechanisms. The results reveal a pronounced growth–decarbonization paradox. Although the simulated transition pathway combines 23 mitigation measures with approximately 86% adoption of alternative fuels, it does not achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Under an assumed annual traffic growth rate of 2.2%, baseline emissions increase by approximately 80%, progressively offsetting the benefits of technological and operational improvements. Voyage phases account for approximately 96% of total emission reductions, while the bunkering stage emerges as a critical enabling subsystem linking renewable energy generation, fuel production, and vessel fuel demand. The analysis further identifies infrastructure readiness, technology saturation, and declining marginal mitigation benefits as key constraints on long-term decarbonization performance. The findings demonstrate that green shipping corridors should be evaluated as integrated transport–energy systems rather than isolated transport routes. The proposed SD framework provides a transferable tool for analysing corridor-scale decarbonization pathways and supporting evidence-based maritime policy and infrastructure planning.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2026.1920484/pdffirst seen 2026-08-14 05:26:12
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