Estimating the Impacts of AI, Trade Policy, and the Energy Transition

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a CGE modeling approach that integrates AI productivity shocks with carbon pricing, useful for researchers studying energy transition and economic impacts of AI.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights that carbon pricing can offset emissions from AI-related energy demand, supporting policy design for energy transition.

Developments in trade policy, AI, and the energy transition are shaping small open economies. This paper uses a static, multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to assess the impacts of these forces on Ireland in the long run through three channels: (i) current tariffs and trade agreements, (ii) AI-driven productivity gains, and (iii) carbon pricing, abstracting from short-run dynamics and frictions. The findings suggest that (i) the current trade policy shocks primarily redirect trade across partners and sectors, with modest aggregate output and export effects; (ii) AI-driven productivity gains can generate strong output and export growth, particularly in knowledge-intensive sectors, while inducing significant sectoral labor reallocation and distributional implications across factors of production which needs to be managed; (iii) carbon pricing can play a key role in addressing rising energy demand from AI and offsetting emissions, by shifting production toward lower-emission activities and increasing the renewable share in electricity generation.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229052658.018first seen 2026-07-28 05:26:24