Asymmetric effects of climate change adaptation on energy transition in top clean and dirty energy-consuming countries
気候変動適応がエネルギー転換に与える非対称効果：クリーンエネルギーと汚染エネルギー消費国の比較 (AI 翻訳)
Mohamed Sami Ben Ali, Alanoud Al-Maadid, Brahim Bergougui
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、気候変動適応がエネルギー転換に与える非対称的影響を、クリーンエネルギー主要国と化石燃料依存国の比較を通じて分析。分位点回帰を用いた実証分析により、クリーンエネルギー大国では適応能力が初期段階で転換を促進するが限界効用が逓減する一方、化石燃料依存国では適応能力が閾値を超えるまで転換が抑制される構造的ロックインを発見。均一な気候政策の非効率性を指摘し、各国の構造に応じた適応投資戦略の重要性を提言。
English
This study investigates asymmetric effects of climate change adaptation on energy transition, comparing clean-energy-leading and fossil-fuel-dependent economies. Using quantile regression, it finds a concave relationship in clean economies (early acceleration then diminishing returns) and a steep threshold effect in fossil-fuel-dependent ones, where structural lock-in suppresses transition until a critical mass of adaptive capacity is reached. Results suggest that uniform climate policies are suboptimal, recommending front-loaded adaptation investments for dirty economies and institutional efficiency for clean ones.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はエネルギー転換と気候適応の両面で政策を進めており、本論文の示す非対称効果は、日本の化石燃料依存度や再生可能エネルギー導入の進展状況に応じた政策設計に示唆を与える。特に、日本の火力発電依存と水素・アンモニア混焼などの過渡期技術への適応投資のあり方を考える上で参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides novel empirical evidence on how climate adaptation capacity asymmetrically drives energy transition across different economic structures. It challenges one-size-fits-all climate policies and offers a framework for tailoring adaptation strategies to national energy profiles—relevant for global debates on just transition and differentiated responsibilities under the Paris Agreement.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodological framework (quantile regression) for studying nonlinear adaptation-transition linkages, and empirical evidence of structural lock-in in fossil-fuel-dependent economies.
🏢実務担当者:Energy strategists can use the findings to assess how adaptation investments (e.g., grid resilience, infrastructure) may differentially accelerate or delay transition in clean vs. fossil-reliant portfolios.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for differentiated adaptation investment strategies: front-loaded for fossil-fuel-dependent countries, efficiency-focused for clean-energy leaders.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change adaptation is increasingly recognized as a potential catalyst for macroeconomic shifts, yet its heterogeneous impact on energy systems remains underexplored. This study investigates the asymmetric effects of climate change adaptation on energy transition, systematically comparing the structural dynamics between the world's top clean and fossil-fuel-dependent (dirty) energy-consuming economies. To capture non-linearities and distributional threshold effects, we employ Multivariate Quantile Regression as the primary analytical framework, alongside Quantile-on-Quantile Granger Causality to map intensity-varying directional flows. Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression is utilized to ensure robustness against endogeneity. The empirical findings reveal a distinct structural divergence between the two economic profiles. In clean-energy‑leading economies, adaptation capacity exhibits a concave relationship with energy transition, characterized by early-stage acceleration followed by diminishing returns as institutional maturity is reached. Conversely, fossil-fuel-dependent economies demonstrate steep threshold responses; profound structural lock-in suppresses transition efforts at lower quantiles, requiring a critical, high-level mass of adaptive capacity to trigger meaningful systemic change. These findings provide novel empirical evidence that adaptation acts not merely as a defensive mechanism, but as a strategic driver of the energy transition subject to institutional path dependence. The study concludes that uniform climate policies are suboptimal. Policymakers in fossil-fuel-heavy economies must prioritize overcoming initial structural barriers through concentrated, front-loaded adaptation investments, whereas clean economies should shift focus toward optimizing institutional efficiency and grid resilience to sustain transition momentum.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181796first seen 2026-05-15 16:44:34
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