気候変動と食料・水・栄養ネクサスの動態評価：エスワティニ・ルボンボ地域の小規模農家システムからのエビデンス

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:気候変動と食料・水・栄養ネクサスの統合的実証手法と、水不足を媒介経路とする因果構造の知見を提供する。

🏢実務担当者:農業・食品サプライチェーンの気候物理リスクと適応策検討の参考になるが、直接的な開示要件対応には限定的。

🏛政策担当者:気候 resilient な農業・水資源管理・適応政策の統合的設計の必要性を示す。

Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural production, water availability, and food and nutrition security, particularly in semi-arid regions where rural livelihoods depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture. In Eswatini, increasing temperatures, erratic rainfall, and recurrent droughts have intensified pressures on smallholder farming systems; however, limited empirical research has examined how climate variability simultaneously affects agriculture, water resources, and household food security within an integrated food–water–nutrition nexus framework. Therefore, this study assessed the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, water availability, food security, and access to nutritious food among smallholder households in the Lubombo Region of Eswatini. A concurrent triangulated mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative data from 880 households with qualitative insights from open-ended responses. Descriptive statistics, Spearman’s correlation, binary logistic regression, and thematic analysis were used to analyse the data. The findings reveal that climate change significantly affects both agricultural and water systems, which in turn directly influence household food security outcomes. The majority of households reported declining crop yields (56.5%), widespread food shortages (79.5%), meal skipping (69.0%), and high levels of food-related anxiety (87.6%). Water insecurity is also prevalent, with over 83% of households experiencing water shortages and nearly all respondents indicating that climate change has affected water access. Correlation and regression analyses demonstrate that drought frequency and reduced rainfall are the strongest predictors of both water insecurity and food insecurity, highlighting the central role of climate variability. Water scarcity emerged as a critical pathway linking climate change to food insecurity, with strong associations between water shortages and reduced crop yields, food shortages, and coping strategies such as skipping meals. Qualitative findings further highlighted declining agricultural productivity, loss of traditional foods, reduced dietary diversity, and increased psychological stress associated with food insecurity. The study concludes that food insecurity in the Lubombo region is multidimensional, driven by the interconnected effects of climate variability, water scarcity, and socio-economic constraints. The findings emphasise the need for integrated, climate-resilient strategies that simultaneously address agricultural production, water resource management, and household adaptive capacity to enhance food and nutrition security. Future research should evaluate the effectiveness of nexus-based adaptation strategies and climate-smart interventions in enhancing long-term food, water, and nutrition security in vulnerable smallholder farming systems.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18178663first seen 2026-09-13 04:47:45