Does climate policy uncertainty affect energy transition? Fresh policy analysis from China
気候政策の不確実性はエネルギー転換に影響を与えるか？中国からの新たな政策分析 (AI 翻訳)
Yuanyuan Hao, Yifei Jiang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は2000年から2024年の中国データを用い、気候政策の不確実性がエネルギー転換に与える影響をBMA法とARDLモデルで分析。短期的には抑制効果が強いが、政府規制の強化や国民の環境意識向上を通じて間接的に促進する「相殺効果」を発見。
English
Using Chinese data from 2000-2024, this study applies BMA and ARDL models to examine how climate policy uncertainty affects energy transition. It finds a strong short-term inhibitory effect, but also an indirect promoting effect through strengthened government regulations and public environmental awareness, creating a partial offset effect.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の事例ではあるが、政策不確実性がエネルギー転換に与える影響の分析枠組みは、日本でもSSBJやGX実現に向けた政策設計に示唆を与える。特に短期と長期の効果の違いや間接効果の考慮は重要。
In the global GX context
While focused on China, the paper's empirical framework on climate policy uncertainty and energy transition offers valuable insights for global policy design, particularly relevant for countries navigating the ISSB and transition finance landscapes. The offset effect highlights the complexity of policy impacts.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust empirical framework using BMA and ARDL to disentangle direct and indirect effects of policy uncertainty on energy transition.
🏢実務担当者:Offers evidence on how policy uncertainty can hinder short-term transition investments, but also shows potential indirect benefits through strengthened regulations.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for consistent climate policy signals to avoid undermining energy transition, while noting that regulatory tightening can partially offset negative effects.
📄 Abstract（原文）
In the context of global climate change mitigation and carbon neutrality goals, climate policy uncertainty constitutes a significant factor influencing the trajectory of China’s energy transition. Therefore, this study takes the data from January 2000 to December 2024 as the research sample, employs the BMA method to identify and test the importance of the various factors that may affect China’s energy transition, and systematically analyzes the dynamic impacts of climate policy uncertainty on energy transition with the help of the ARDL model. The results of the study show: (1) Climate policy uncertainty exerts a significant negative impact on energy transition, with stronger inhibitory effects in the short term than in the long term. This finding remains robust after a series of rigorous sensitivity tests. (2) Bayesian model averaging analysis indicates that climate policy uncertainty exhibits a high relative importance among various determinants influencing energy transition, with a posterior inclusion probability of 68.5%. (3) The ARDL estimation results further reveal that while climate policy uncertainty directly inhibits energy transition, it indirectly promotes the transition by reinforcing government environmental regulations and elevating public environmental awareness, thereby creating a partial “offset effect”. Accordingly, the findings of this study can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for relevant energy enterprises to formulate and implement strategies to adapt to the dynamic environment. At the same time, it enriches existing models and methodologies to a certain extent, further deepening the exploration of the mechanism linking climate policy uncertainty and energy transition. This provides the necessary theory to inform the development of policies and strategies that promote a low-carbon transition and development.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-07589-yfirst seen 2026-05-29 05:08:50 · last seen 2026-06-03 05:06:04
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