IMACLIM-China-MORE: A hybrid model for analyzing greenhouse gases neutrality pathways
IMACLIM-China-MORE：温室効果ガス中立経路分析のためのハイブリッドモデル (AI 翻訳)
Bowen Wang, Ziqi Wu, Xin Su, Fei Teng
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、中国のGHG中立達成に向けた技術と経済の相互作用を分析するハイブリッドモデルIMACLIM-China-MOREを開発。CO2中立とGHG中立のシナリオを比較し、非CO2排出の残存や追加的なマクロ経済コストを定量化。農業・食品セクターへの影響が大きい一方、エネルギー投資の増加が必要と示す。
English
This paper introduces IMACLIM-China-MORE, an iteratively coupled hybrid model linking an energy-system optimization model with a CGE model to analyze China's GHG neutrality pathways. It compares CO2 and GHG neutrality scenarios, finding significant non-CO2 emissions remain under CO2 neutrality, and moderate additional macroeconomic costs for GHG neutrality, with higher impacts on agriculture and food sectors and about one-third increase in energy investment.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の脱炭素経路分析は日本の政策立案にも示唆を与える。特に非CO2ガスを含む統合モデルは、日本が2050年カーボンニュートラルを検討する際の参考となる。
In the global GX context
This model provides a transparent, policy-relevant framework for evaluating multi-gas mitigation trade-offs in China, the world's largest emitter. Its hybrid approach offers insights for global decarbonization strategy and can inform similar analyses in other regions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Hybrid energy-economy modeling methodology and multi-gas scenario analysis for China's 2060 neutrality targets.
🏛政策担当者:Quantified trade-offs between CO2 and full GHG neutrality, including sectoral impacts and investment needs, relevant for Chinese policy design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Designing effective carbon-neutrality policy for China requires models that capture interactions between technology-oriented energy transitions and economy-wide responses. However, most assessments use either bottom-up energy models or top-down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models in isolation, which limits pathway insights. We develop IMACLIM–China-MORE, an iteratively coupled hybrid model that links the TIMES-based China-MORE 2.0 energy-system optimization model with IMACLIM-CHN, a single-region, 18-sector CGE model. The two models exchange prices, energy-service demands, activity levels, and abatement schedules under harmonized accounts, and the coverage extends from CO<sub>2</sub> to methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases. We apply the framework to three scenarios: Current Policies, CO<sub>2</sub> Neutrality, and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Neutrality. Under CO<sub>2</sub> Neutrality, the power and industrial sectors deliver the largest near-term reductions, but about 1.5 GtCO<sub>2</sub>e non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions remain in 2060. Under GHG Neutrality, net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> is achieved by around 2055 and non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions fall to about 0.8 GtCO<sub>2</sub>e in 2060, which would need to be offset by carbon-removal options. The additional macroeconomic costs of moving from CO<sub>2</sub> to GHG neutrality are moderate overall, although the agriculture and food sectors face relatively larger impacts, and investment in the energy system increases by about one third. IMACLIM–China-MORE provides a transparent, policy-relevant platform to evaluate trade-offs among technology choices, macroeconomic outcomes, and multi-gas mitigation on China’s path to GHG neutrality.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.26599/ecm.2026.9400032first seen 2026-06-08 04:40:08
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