ベトナム電力部門の2050年までの脱炭素経路：OSeMOSYSシナリオ分析
Power-Sector Decarbonization Pathways in Viet Nam to 2050: An OSeMOSYS Scenario Analysis (原題)
Le Huy, Huan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
OSeMOSYSを用い、ベトナム電力システムの2026〜2050年を3シナリオで比較した。再エネ拡大と石炭段階的削減のいずれでも太陽光・風力が主導し、2050年の年間CO2排出はBAUの718.6Mtに対し44.5Mt・20.8Mtへ減少する。累積排出はBAU比で約73〜77%減だが、累積資本投資は約3,470〜3,720億ドル増加する。
English
Using OSeMOSYS, the study compares three 2026–2050 pathways for Viet Nam's power system. Solar and wind dominate both transition scenarios, cutting 2050 annual CO2 emissions to 44.5 Mt (RE_EXP) and 20.8 Mt (COAL_TR) versus 718.6 Mt under BAU, with cumulative emissions 73–77% lower. Cumulative capital investment rises by USD 347–372 billion, excluding fuel and operating costs.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ベトナムはJETPや日本のアジア・ゼロエミッション共同体（AZEC）支援の主要対象国であり、日本企業の電力・再エネ投資判断や政府間協力の根拠として参照価値がある。石炭制約の有無が累積排出を左右する点は、日本の支援策設計にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Viet Nam is a key JETP and AZEC partner, so this scenario work informs transition-finance allocation and coal phase-out planning in emerging Asia. It also illustrates how fossil-generation constraints, not just renewable targets, drive cumulative emissions—relevant to ISSB/transition-plan disclosure debates.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:長期電力モデルにおける化石燃料制約と再エネ目標の相互作用を定量化する手法例として有用。
🏢実務担当者:ベトナムの電力・再エネ投資や調達先の長期リスク評価に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:石炭容量制限と再エネ目標の組合せが排出削減と必要投資に与える影響を政策設計に反映できる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study uses OSeMOSYS through MUIO to compare three pathways for Viet Nam’s electricity system, reporting results for 2026–2050. All scenarios share final electricity demand and technology costs. Business as usual (BAU) retains minimum fossil-generation requirements. Renewable expansion (RE_EXP) removes these requirements and introduces a minimum eligible renewable generation share reaching 75% in 2050, covering wind, solar PV and biomass. COAL_TR adds restrictions that progressively reduce coal generation to zero by 2050 and prohibit new coal capacity from 2031. Solar and wind dominate the transition portfolios, complemented by hydropower, biomass and nuclear generation. By 2050, installed generation capacity reaches approximately 787 GW in both transition scenarios, compared with 479.7 GW under BAU. Annual direct CO ₂ emissions fall to 44.5 Mt under RE_EXP and 20.8 Mt under COAL_TR, compared with 718.6 Mt under BAU. Cumulative emissions over 2026–2050 are 72.51% and 76.82% lower than BAU, respectively. Cumulative capital investment reaches USD 1,436.2 billion under RE_EXP and USD 1,461.3 billion under COAL_TR, compared with USD 1,089.1 billion under BAU. Additional investment therefore amounts to USD 347.1 billion and USD 372.2 billion. These undiscounted capital requirements exclude fuel expenditure, operating costs and salvage values and do not establish differences in total system costs or abatement costs. The shared renewable-share endpoint produces different cumulative emissions, highlighting the importance of fossil-generation constraints and transition timing. Zero coal generation also remains distinct from complete coal-capacity retirement and zero direct emissions. Comparisons with BAU reflect the combined scenario packages, including removal of fossil-generation floors. The single-region model and 20 representative time slices do not resolve regional transmission constraints or hourly reliability, while pumped-hydro deployment has no national potential ceiling.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23587323first seen 2026-10-24 04:12:05 · last seen 2026-10-28 04:12:28
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