A Study on the Interaction Among Urban Transport Carbon Emissions, Economy, and Transportation System in Shanghai Based on Coupled Coordination and Decoupling Models

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🔬研究者:Offers a novel integrated framework (TCCDM, Tapio, GDIM) for analyzing transport-emissions-economy interactions, applicable to other megacities.

🏢実務担当者:Provides evidence that synergistic policies between transport and economy can enhance emission reductions, useful for urban sustainability planning.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for integrated policies that align green transport transformation with economic development to achieve carbon neutrality.

本研究構築了一個整合性分析框架，結合三維耦合協調度模型（TCCDM）、Tapio脫鉤模型與廣義Divisia指數法（GDIM），探討2000年至2023年間上海城市交通、經濟增長與碳排放之間的動態交互作用及驅動機制。結果顯示，三個系統間的協調度經歷三個截然不同的階段演變：初始失衡、臨界轉型與高水準協調。三維相圖進一步揭示從「低發展、高排放」模式向均衡、高品質發展軌跡的顯著轉變。脫鉤分析表明，近年來經濟增長與碳排放，以及交通發展與碳排放，均已實現顯著脫鉤。然而，經濟增長與交通之間呈現擴張性負脫鉤，凸顯了維持協同發展所面臨的新興挑戰。透過GDIM分解顯示，經濟發展與交通之間的交互作用持續對減排作出貢獻，其效果往往超過任一系統的獨立效應。這些發現強調了系統性協同在推動特大城市非線性低碳轉型中的作用。因此，政策干預應採取整合性方法，促進綠色交通轉型與高品質經濟發展之間的深度協作，以有效實現碳中和目標。

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This study constructs an integrated analytical framework combining a Tripartite Coupling Coordination Degree Model (TCCDM), the Tapio decoupling model, and the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) to investigate the dynamic interactions and driving mechanisms among urban transportation, economic growth, and carbon emissions in Shanghai from 2000 to 2023. The results indicate that the coordination degree among the three systems evolves through three distinct phases: initial imbalance, critical transition, and high-level coordination. A three-dimensional phase diagram further reveals a marked shift from a “low-development, high-emission” pattern toward a balanced, high-quality development trajectory. Decoupling analysis demonstrates that economic growth and carbon emissions, as well as transport development and carbon emissions, have achieved significant decoupling in recent years. However, an expansive negative decoupling between economic growth and transportation highlights emerging challenges in sustaining synergistic development. Decomposition via GDIM shows that the interaction between economic development and transportation has consistently contributed to emission reduction, often exceeding the independent effects of either system. These findings underscore the role of systemic synergy in driving the nonlinear low-carbon transition of megacities. Consequently, policy interventions should adopt an integrated approach that fosters deep collaboration between green transportation transformation and high-quality economic development to effectively achieve carbon neutrality goals.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18083745first seen 2026-05-05 19:12:28 · last seen 2026-05-25 04:54:44