中国の農業食料システムにおける低炭素移行：ポテンシャル、経路、および世界的含意
Low‐Carbon Transition in China's Agrifood System: Potential, Pathways and Global Implications (原題)
Yumei Zhang, Jingjing Wang, Zhang Ruizeng, Tiantian Sun, Shenggen Fan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の農業食料システムは世界の同部門排出の13%を占め、現状維持では2060年に年1.83億トン（CO2換算）まで増加する。生産性向上、低炭素技術、フードロス削減、生産構造調整、エネルギー転換の組み合わせでベースライン比60%超（11億トン）削減が可能。炭素隔離のみでも年18億トンの削減ポテンシャルがあり、炭素中立達成に寄与しうる。
English
China's agrifood system accounts for 13% of global agrifood emissions and could rise to 1.83 Gt CO2eq by 2060 under baseline trends. Combined measures—productivity gains, low-carbon tech, food loss reduction, structural shifts, and energy transition—could cut emissions over 60% (1.1 Gt) versus baseline. Carbon sequestration alone could reach 1.8 Gt annually, supporting carbon neutrality.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の農業脱炭素は日本の食品・農業サプライチェーン（Scope 3）や輸入食料の炭素集約度に直結する。SSBJのScope 3開示や食品企業の調達リスク評価に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Provides empirical pathways for agrifood decarbonization in the world's largest emitter, informing global food-system transition finance and Scope 3 accounting under ISSB/CSRD. Offers a model for developing-country policy design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:農業食料システムの統合評価モデルと政策シナリオ設計の実証例として有用。
🏢実務担当者:食品・農業関連企業のScope 3削減目標設定や調達戦略に示唆。
🏛政策担当者:農業脱炭素政策の複合施策の有効性と炭素隔離の役割を政策設計に反映可能。
📄 Abstract（原文）
ABSTRACT Global agrifood systems must undergo a low‐carbon transition to achieve Paris Agreement temperature goals. Accounting for 13% of global agrifood systems emissions, China has a critical role to play; yet without further action, China's agrifood emissions will continue to rise, jeopardising its carbon neutrality commitment. This study employs a mixed‐methods approach combining a narrative literature review and integrated modelling to: (1) characterise the emissions of China's agrifood system, (2) project carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration potential under multiple domestic policy scenarios, and (3) provide wider implications for developing countries. Under the baseline scenario, holding current trends and policies constant, annual emissions are projected to rise slowly from a baseline of 1.6 billion tons in 2021 to 1.83 billion tons of CO 2 eq by 2060, driven primarily by the expansion of the livestock sector and growing energy use. However, our modelling results suggest that a combination of measures, including productivity improvements, the adoption of low‐carbon technologies, food loss and waste reduction, production structure adjustment, and a low‐carbon energy transition, could reduce emissions by over 60% or 1.1 billion tons CO 2 eq by 2060 relative to the baseline. At the same time, carbon sequestration alone could ensure carbon neutrality, with potential reductions of 1.8 billion tons CO 2 eq annually, thereby contributing to the national carbon neutrality goal. These results underscore that synergistic, system‐wide interventions substantially outperform isolated measures. China's experience offers a valuable reference for other countries in formulating sustainable agricultural policies and pursuing low‐carbon transitions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70081first seen 2026-09-25 04:41:44
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