Modelling electricity demand and emissions from statewide vehicle electrification: regional, behavioral, and grid decarbonization effects in California

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Useful for those modeling EV-grid integration and emissions at subnational scale.

🏢実務担当者:Utilities can use charging scenario insights to plan grid investments and demand-side management.

🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need for concurrent grid decarbonization and smart charging policies to maximize EV climate benefits.

Abstract Our study evaluates the projected electricity demand and associated emissions from statewide LDV electrification. Using adoption forecasts from the U.S. Department of Energy’s EVI-Pro Lite tool, hourly grid carbon intensity profiles from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and electricity generation data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), we assess charging demand and emissions across 75 cities in California. By incorporating demographic trends and driving behaviors, our modeling captures how regional differences in temperature, mileage, and grid carbon intensity affect outcomes for zero-emission vehicles. 
 Our results indicate that full LDV electrification would add between 81 and 305 TWh yr⁻¹ of annual charging demand, relative to a modelled baseline of 109 TWh yr⁻¹. Associated daily emissions average 110,755 mTCO₂ but vary substantially across scenarios. Under high decarbonization conditions, emissions decline to 83,480 mTCO₂ (-24.6%), whereas under low-decarbonization conditions, they increase to 128,786 mTCO₂ (+16%). Adjustments to charging times, such as charging during the day, can reduce CO₂ emissions by 103,261 mTCO₂(-6.8%). In contrast, charging at night and uniform charging patterns result in increases of 121,639 mTCO₂ (9.8%) and 112,450 mTCO₂ (1.5%), respectively. 
 These results reaffirm that grid decarbonization remains the dominant structural driver of system-wide emissions, whereas behavioral factors, such as charging timing, serve as important but secondary levers. Although managed charging can yield meaningful near-term reductions by aligning load with renewable generation, long-term emissions trajectories will be shaped more profoundly by grid carbon intensity, travel demand, and vehicle efficiency improvements. Our findings emphasize the crucial roles of both grid decarbonization and carbon-aware charging strategies in maximizing the climate benefits of electrifying transportation. By incorporating behavioral, demographic, and regional differences into emissions modeling, our study provides practical insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to align large-scale adoption of zero-emission vehicles with California’s carbon-neutrality objectives. 

• crossref https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ae7630first seen 2026-06-03 05:52:09